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Forecast aggregation research benchmarks · SOTA2 Research

Forecast aggregation

Benchmarks

Dataset NameSOTA MethodSort

Dataset NameSOTA methodMetricTrendResultsLast Updated

Known state space Θ = {0, 1}

Our Aggregator (fα)

0.023Worst-Case Regret

6

Apr 28, 2026

Unknown state space setting

generalized log-odds aggregator (fα)

2.551Worst-Case Regret

5

Apr 28, 2026

Known-marginal setting

Our Aggregator (fα,γ)

0.023Worst-Case Regret

4

Apr 28, 2026

Unknown state space with known marginal predictive distributions

Minimax Aggregator

0Tight Bound

2

Apr 28, 2026

Unknown state space

trivial constant rule

0.25Tight Bound

2

Apr 28, 2026

Popular datasets

Known-marginal Unknown state space setting Known state space Unknown state space Unknown state space with known marginal predictive distributions

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