Forecast Aggregation on Known state space Θ = {0, 1}
0.0226Worst-Case RegretOur Aggregator (fα)
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Aggregator (fα)Prior Estimate (μ̂)=α ≈ 0.51682026.04 | 0.0226 | — | — | — | |
| Guo et al. (2025)Prior Estimate (μ̂)=-2026.04 | 0.0226 | — | — | — | |
| State-of-the-artPrior Estimate (μ̂)=ep(x1, x2)†2026.04 | 0.025 | — | — | — | |
| Average PriorPrior Estimate (μ̂)=(x1+x2)/22026.04 | 0.026 | — | — | — | |
| Kong et al. (2024)Prior Estimate (μ̂)=(x1+x2)/2, λ=12026.04 | 0.026 | — | — | — | |
| Simple AveragingPrior Estimate (μ̂)=-2026.04 | 0.0625 | — | — | — | |
| Minimax AggregatorInformation Structure=Conditionally Independent2026.04 | — | 5 | 0.0226 | — | |
| Minimax AggregatorInformation Structure=Blackwell-Ordered2026.04 | — | — | — | 5 | |
| trivial constant ruleInformation Structure=General2026.04 | — | — | — | 0.25 |