Forecast Aggregation on Unknown state space setting
2.5512Worst-Case Regretgeneralized log-odds aggregator (fα)
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |
|---|---|---|
| generalized log-odds aggregator (fα)Prior Estimate (µ̂)=α ≈ 0.5852026.04 | 2.5512 | |
| Kong et al. (2024)Prior Estimate (µ̂)=x1 + x2 / 2, λ=0.82026.04 | 2.98 | |
| Heuristic PriorPrior Estimate (µ̂)=ep(x1, x2)†2026.04 | 3.03 | |
| Average PriorPrior Estimate (µ̂)=x1 + x2 / 22026.04 | 3.11 | |
| Simple AveragingPrior Estimate (µ̂)=-2026.04 | 6.25 |