Win Prediction on Lichess Blitz April 2026 (held-out slice)
92.3Predicted Expected ScoreChessMimic
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ChessMimicDecile=10, n=477,5032026.06 | 92.3 | 93.2 | |
| Maia-2Decile=10, n=477,5032026.06 | 88.2 | 54.8 | |
| ChessMimicDecile=7, n=477,5032026.06 | 56.4 | 57.1 | |
| Maia-2Decile=7, n=477,5032026.06 | 56.3 | 49.6 | |
| Maia-2Decile=5, n=477,5032026.06 | 49.9 | 49.8 | |
| ChessMimicDecile=5, n=477,5032026.06 | 48.1 | 48.1 | |
| Maia-2Decile=3, n=477,5042026.06 | 41.4 | 49.2 | |
| ChessMimicDecile=3, n=477,5042026.06 | 37.4 | 36.7 | |
| Maia-2Decile=1, n=477,5042026.06 | 12.9 | 54.3 | |
| ChessMimicDecile=1, n=477,5042026.06 | 8.5 | 8 |