Outcome prediction on Lichess April 2026 (held-out slice)
0.1837Brier ScoreChessMimic winner
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChessMimic winner2026.06 | 0.1837 | 0.5647 | 0.7768 | |
| Draw-aware multinomial (W/D/L)Features=Win/Draw/Loss awareness2026.06 | 0.207 | 0.6231 | 0.7074 | |
| Material + rating + clock logisticFeatures=Material, Rating, Clock2026.06 | 0.2084 | 0.6265 | 0.7014 | |
| Rating + clock logisticFeatures=Rating, Clock2026.06 | 0.2281 | 0.6707 | 0.6192 | |
| Maia-2Calibration=isotonic-recalibrated2026.06 | 0.2372 | 0.6892 | 0.5127 | |
| Rating-only Elo expectationFeatures=Rating only2026.06 | 0.2374 | 0.6905 | 0.555 | |
| Maia-2Calibration=raw2026.06 | 0.2787 | 0.8501 | 0.5012 |