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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Chess Outcome Prediction on Lichess sample April 2026 (month-wide slice)

0.174Brier ScoreChessMimic
0.169640.199070.22850.25793Jun 3, 2026
Updated 5mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2200-3500, n=218,6532026.060.1740.092
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=0-1000, n=275,5282026.060.1780.106
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2100-2200, n=179,3702026.060.180.093
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2000-2100, n=279,2122026.060.1820.096
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1000-1100, n=195,4962026.060.1830.097
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1900-2000, n=374,9462026.060.1830.095
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1100-1200, n=245,7142026.060.1840.097
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1700-1800, n=489,4932026.060.1840.094
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1800-1900, n=451,9592026.060.1840.094
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1200-1300, n=307,3702026.060.1850.097
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1300-1400, n=370,6682026.060.1850.095
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1600-1700, n=490,1372026.060.1850.094
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1500-1600, n=475,3172026.060.1870.093
ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1400-1500, n=421,1702026.060.1880.093
Maia-2Side-to-move band=2200-3500, n=218,6532026.060.266—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=2100-2200, n=179,3702026.060.273—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1900-2000, n=374,9462026.060.277—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=2000-2100, n=279,2122026.060.277—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1700-1800, n=489,4932026.060.278—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1800-1900, n=451,9592026.060.278—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1500-1600, n=475,3172026.060.279—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1600-1700, n=490,1372026.060.279—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1000-1100, n=195,4962026.060.28—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1200-1300, n=307,3702026.060.281—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1300-1400, n=370,6682026.060.281—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1400-1500, n=421,1702026.060.281—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=1100-1200, n=245,7142026.060.282—
Maia-2Side-to-move band=0-1000, n=275,5282026.060.283—