Chess Outcome Prediction on Lichess sample April 2026 (month-wide slice)
0.174Brier ScoreChessMimic
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2200-3500, n=218,6532026.06 | 0.174 | 0.092 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=0-1000, n=275,5282026.06 | 0.178 | 0.106 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2100-2200, n=179,3702026.06 | 0.18 | 0.093 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=2000-2100, n=279,2122026.06 | 0.182 | 0.096 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1000-1100, n=195,4962026.06 | 0.183 | 0.097 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1900-2000, n=374,9462026.06 | 0.183 | 0.095 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1100-1200, n=245,7142026.06 | 0.184 | 0.097 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1700-1800, n=489,4932026.06 | 0.184 | 0.094 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1800-1900, n=451,9592026.06 | 0.184 | 0.094 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1200-1300, n=307,3702026.06 | 0.185 | 0.097 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1300-1400, n=370,6682026.06 | 0.185 | 0.095 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1600-1700, n=490,1372026.06 | 0.185 | 0.094 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1500-1600, n=475,3172026.06 | 0.187 | 0.093 | |
| ChessMimicSide-to-move band=1400-1500, n=421,1702026.06 | 0.188 | 0.093 | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=2200-3500, n=218,6532026.06 | 0.266 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=2100-2200, n=179,3702026.06 | 0.273 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1900-2000, n=374,9462026.06 | 0.277 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=2000-2100, n=279,2122026.06 | 0.277 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1700-1800, n=489,4932026.06 | 0.278 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1800-1900, n=451,9592026.06 | 0.278 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1500-1600, n=475,3172026.06 | 0.279 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1600-1700, n=490,1372026.06 | 0.279 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1000-1100, n=195,4962026.06 | 0.28 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1200-1300, n=307,3702026.06 | 0.281 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1300-1400, n=370,6682026.06 | 0.281 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1400-1500, n=421,1702026.06 | 0.281 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=1100-1200, n=245,7142026.06 | 0.282 | — | |
| Maia-2Side-to-move band=0-1000, n=275,5282026.06 | 0.283 | — |