Time Series Forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE, Imp. (MSE))
0.009MSECaTT
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CaTTH=3362024.10 | 0.009 | 0.069 | — | |
| CoSTH=7202024.10 | 0.009 | 0.07 | — | |
| CoSTH=3362024.10 | 0.011 | 0.074 | — | |
| CaTTH=7202024.10 | 0.011 | 0.083 | — | |
| MF-CLRH=7202024.10 | 0.011 | 0.075 | — | |
| CaTTH=1682024.10 | 0.012 | 0.082 | — | |
| MF-CLRH=3362024.10 | 0.012 | 0.074 | — | |
| CoSTH=1682024.10 | 0.013 | 0.08 | — | |
| TS2Vec + SoftCLTH=7202024.10 | 0.014 | 0.084 | — | |
| TS2VecH=7202024.10 | 0.015 | 0.086 | — | |
| MF-CLRH=1682024.10 | 0.017 | 0.086 | — | |
| TS2Vec + SoftCLTH=3362024.10 | 0.019 | 0.094 | — | |
| TS2VecH=3362024.10 | 0.021 | 0.097 | — | |
| CaTTH=482024.10 | 0.024 | 0.114 | — | |
| TS2Vec + SoftCLTH=1682024.10 | 0.03 | 0.118 | — | |
| CoSTH=482024.10 | 0.034 | 0.153 | — | |
| TS2VecH=1682024.10 | 0.034 | 0.12 | — | |
| CaTTH=242024.10 | 0.037 | 0.152 | — | |
| ORCABase Model=Sundial, Adaptation Strategy=Refined2026.06 | 0.0408 | — | -1.7 | |
| SundialAdaptation Strategy=Vanilla2026.06 | 0.0415 | — | — | |
| ORCABase Model=Chronos-2, Adaptation Strategy=Refined2026.06 | 0.0435 | — | -8.9 | |
| ORCABase Model=TimesFM-2.5, Adaptation Strategy=Refined2026.06 | 0.0441 | — | -11.3 | |
| ORCABase Model=Moirai-2, Adaptation Strategy=Refined2026.06 | 0.0446 | — | -21.2 | |
| ORCABase Model=TiRex, Adaptation Strategy=Refined2026.06 | 0.0463 | — | -14.5 | |
| Chronos-2Adaptation Strategy=Vanilla2026.06 | 0.0477 | — | — | |
| CoSTH=242024.10 | 0.049 | 0.198 | — | |
| MF-CLRH=482024.10 | 0.049 | 0.181 | — | |
| TimesFM-2.5Adaptation Strategy=Vanilla2026.06 | 0.0497 | — | — | |
| TiRexAdaptation Strategy=Vanilla2026.06 | 0.0542 | — | — | |
| Moirai-2Adaptation Strategy=Vanilla2026.06 | 0.0565 | — | — | |
| TS2Vec + SoftCLTH=482024.10 | 0.077 | 0.202 | — | |
| MF-CLRH=242024.10 | 0.08 | 0.257 | — | |
| TS2VecH=482024.10 | 0.094 | 0.226 | — | |
| TS2Vec + SoftCLTH=242024.10 | 0.105 | 0.276 | — | |
| TS2VecH=242024.10 | 0.131 | 0.317 | — | |
| McWCPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.157 | 0.202 | — | |
| Super-LinearHorizon=96, Model Size=2.5M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.159 | 0.211 | — | |
| Time-MoE LargeHorizon=96, Model Size=453M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.159 | 0.213 | — | |
| Time-MoE baseHorizon=96, Model Size=113M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.16 | 0.214 | — | |
| TimeMixerPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.161 | 0.208 | — | |
| WPMixerPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.163 | 0.205 | — | |
| SDEPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.165 | 0.213 | — | |
| Timer-XLHorizon=96, Model Size=84M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.171 | 0.225 | — | |
| FreTSPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.171 | 0.227 | — | |
| iTransformerPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.175 | 0.215 | — | |
| PatchTSTPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.175 | 0.217 | — | |
| DlinearPrediction Horizon=962026.06 | 0.196 | 0.256 | — | |
| ROSEHorizon=96, Model Size=7.4M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.2 | 0.26 | — | |
| McWCPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.202 | 0.242 | — | |
| ChronosHorizon=96, Model Size=201M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.203 | 0.238 | — | |
| Super-LinearHorizon=192, Model Size=2.5M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.207 | 0.254 | — | |
| WPMixerPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.207 | 0.245 | — | |
| TimeMixerPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.207 | 0.251 | — | |
| Time-MoE baseHorizon=192, Model Size=113M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.21 | 0.26 | — | |
| SDEPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.214 | 0.255 | — | |
| Time-MoE LargeHorizon=192, Model Size=453M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.215 | 0.266 | — | |
| FreTSPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.218 | 0.28 | — | |
| PRformer + CMBackbone=PRformer, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.219 | 0.251 | 2.2 | |
| CARD L=720 + CMBackbone=CARD, Input window size (L)=720, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.22 | 0.252 | 2.7 | |
| MoiraiHorizon=96, Model Size=91M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.22 | 0.217 | — | |
| PatchTSTPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.22 | 0.255 | — | |
| Timer-XLHorizon=192, Model Size=84M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.221 | 0.271 | — | |
| PRformerBackbone=PRformer, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.224 | 0.256 | — | |
| CycleNetinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.224 | 0.266 | — | |
| iTransformerPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.225 | 0.257 | — | |
| CARD L=720Backbone=CARD, Input window size (L)=720, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.226 | 0.255 | — | |
| PatchTSTinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.232 | 0.274 | — | |
| Minusformer L=336 + CMBackbone=Minusformer, Input window size (L)=336, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.235 | 0.27 | 2.9 | |
| SERAFinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.235 | 0.28 | — | |
| CARD L=96 + CMBackbone=CARD, Input window size (L)=96, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.238 | 0.261 | 0.8 | |
| DLinearinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.238 | 0.289 | — | |
| DlinearPrediction Horizon=1922026.06 | 0.238 | 0.299 | — | |
| ROSEHorizon=192, Model Size=7.4M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.239 | 0.288 | — | |
| CARD L=96Backbone=CARD, Input window size (L)=96, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.24 | 0.262 | — | |
| Super-LinearHorizon=Avg., Model Size=2.5M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.24 | 0.275 | — | |
| TimeMixerinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.24 | 0.272 | — | |
| McWCPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.24 | 0.267 | — | |
| RAFTinput time series length=720, horizons=96, 192, 336, 720 (averaged)2026.06 | 0.241 | 0.287 | — | |
| Minusformer L=336Backbone=Minusformer, Input window size (L)=336, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.242 | 0.275 | — | |
| PPM2026.05 | 0.242 | 0.268 | — | |
| WPMixerPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.243 | 0.269 | — | |
| TimeMixerPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.244 | 0.274 | — | |
| FreTSPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.245 | 0.293 | — | |
| iTransformer + CMBackbone=iTransformer, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.25 | 0.275 | 3.8 | |
| NsDiff2026.05 | 0.251 | 0.29 | — | |
| SDEPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.251 | 0.279 | — | |
| Minusformer L=96 + CMBackbone=Minusformer, Input window size (L)=96, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=with CM2024.10 | 0.252 | 0.275 | 3.1 | |
| ChronosHorizon=192, Model Size=201M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.256 | 0.29 | — | |
| Timer-XLHorizon=Avg., Model Size=84M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.256 | 0.294 | — | |
| PatchTSTPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.257 | 0.279 | — | |
| DeepAR2026.05 | 0.259 | 0.333 | — | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.26 | 0.281 | — | |
| Minusformer L=96Backbone=Minusformer, Input window size (L)=96, Horizon (H)=Average 4Hs, Method variant=without CM2024.10 | 0.26 | 0.281 | — | |
| McWCPrediction Horizon=3362026.06 | 0.26 | 0.286 | — | |
| iTransformerPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.26 | 0.28 | — | |
| Super-LinearHorizon=336, Model Size=2.5M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.261 | 0.293 | — | |
| ROSEHorizon=Avg., Model Size=7.4M, Zero-shot=true2025.09 | 0.264 | 0.305 | — | |
| TimeMixerPrediction Horizon=3362026.06 | 0.264 | 0.293 | — | |
| FreTSPrediction Horizon=3362026.06 | 0.265 | 0.317 | — | |
| DlinearPrediction Horizon=avg2026.06 | 0.265 | 0.316 | — |