Time Series Forecasting on Tourism Quarterly
0.065MASEChronos Bolt Base
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronos Bolt Base2025.10 | 0.065 | — | — | — | |
| Chronos Bolt Mini2025.10 | 0.065 | — | — | — | |
| Chronos Large2025.10 | 0.067 | — | — | — | |
| TimesFM 2.02025.10 | 0.07 | — | — | — | |
| ChromaModel Size=tiny, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Best2025.10 | 0.071 | — | — | — | |
| ChromaModel Size=tiny, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Ensemble2025.10 | 0.071 | — | — | — | |
| Auto ETS2025.10 | 0.071 | — | — | — | |
| ChromaModel Size=4m, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Best2025.10 | 0.076 | — | — | — | |
| ChromaModel Size=4m, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Ensemble2025.10 | 0.076 | — | — | — | |
| Moirai Large2025.10 | 0.082 | — | — | — | |
| Auto ARIMA2025.10 | 0.1 | — | — | — | |
| Seasonal Naive2025.10 | 0.119 | — | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=212024.11 | 1.013 | 0.08 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=182024.11 | 1.046 | 0.09 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=182024.11 | 1.071 | 0.088 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=212024.11 | 1.113 | 0.086 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=182024.11 | 1.124 | 0.095 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=212024.11 | 1.134 | 0.089 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=212024.11 | 1.163 | 0.095 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=152024.11 | 1.166 | 0.085 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=152024.11 | 1.188 | 0.091 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=102024.11 | 1.203 | 0.093 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=152024.11 | 1.238 | 0.092 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=182024.11 | 1.263 | 0.126 | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=102024.11 | 1.467 | 0.101 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=152024.11 | 1.51 | 0.134 | — | — | |
| GrasyndaArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.517 | — | — | — | |
| GrasyndaArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.548 | — | — | — | |
| DBAArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.549 | — | — | — | |
| GrasyndaArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.555 | — | — | — | |
| DBAArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.565 | — | — | — | |
| OriginalArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.568 | — | — | — | |
| OriginalArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.571 | — | — | — | |
| M-WarpArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.591 | — | — | — | |
| TSMixupArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.598 | — | — | — | |
| MBBArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.6 | — | — | — | |
| ScalingArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.603 | — | — | — | |
| DBAArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.605 | — | — | — | |
| JitterArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.608 | — | — | — | |
| M-WarpArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.615 | — | — | — | |
| T-WarpArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.616 | — | — | — | |
| TSMixupArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.622 | — | — | — | |
| ScalingArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.623 | — | — | — | |
| M-WarpArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.628 | — | — | — | |
| JitterArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.631 | — | — | — | |
| OriginalArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.635 | — | — | — | |
| MBBArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.637 | — | — | — | |
| TSMixupArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.642 | — | — | — | |
| ScalingArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.645 | — | — | — | |
| JitterArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.654 | — | — | — | |
| MBBArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.663 | — | — | — | |
| T-WarpArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.67 | — | — | — | |
| SNaiveArchitecture=NHITS2026.01 | 1.702 | — | — | — | |
| SNaiveArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.702 | — | — | — | |
| SNaiveArchitecture=KAN2026.01 | 1.702 | — | — | — | |
| T-WarpArchitecture=MLP2026.01 | 1.72 | — | — | — | |
| RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=102024.11 | 2.319 | 0.146 | — | — | |
| BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=102024.11 | 3.066 | 0.214 | — | — | |
| ChronosContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04 | — | — | 0.0634 | 0.0183 | |
| SundialContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04 | — | — | 0.0469 | 0.0147 | |
| Time-MoEContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04 | — | — | 0.006 | 0.0704 | |
| TimerContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04 | — | — | 0.068 | 0.2047 | |
| WaveMoEContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04 | — | — | 0.0003 | 0.0037 |