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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Time Series Forecasting on Tourism Quarterly

0.065MASEChronos Bolt Base
-0.055040.755231.56552.37577Nov 12, 2024Jan 24, 2025Apr 8, 2025Jun 20, 2025Sep 2, 2025Nov 14, 2025Jan 27, 2026
Updated 6mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
Chronos Bolt Base2025.100.065———
Chronos Bolt Mini2025.100.065———
Chronos Large2025.100.067———
TimesFM 2.02025.100.07———
ChromaModel Size=tiny, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Best2025.100.071———
ChromaModel Size=tiny, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Ensemble2025.100.071———
Auto ETS2025.100.071———
ChromaModel Size=4m, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Best2025.100.076———
ChromaModel Size=4m, Frequency Awareness=true, Aggregation Strategy=Ensemble2025.100.076———
Moirai Large2025.100.082———
Auto ARIMA2025.100.1———
Seasonal Naive2025.100.119———
RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=212024.111.0130.08——
RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=182024.111.0460.09——
RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=182024.111.0710.088——
BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=212024.111.1130.086——
BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=182024.111.1240.095——
RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=212024.111.1340.089——
BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=212024.111.1630.095——
RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=152024.111.1660.085——
BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=152024.111.1880.091——
BaseModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=102024.111.2030.093——
RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=152024.111.2380.092——
BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=182024.111.2630.126——
RAFModel=Chronos Base (b), Context Length (C)=102024.111.4670.101——
BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=152024.111.510.134——
GrasyndaArchitecture=MLP2026.011.517———
GrasyndaArchitecture=KAN2026.011.548———
DBAArchitecture=KAN2026.011.549———
GrasyndaArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.555———
DBAArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.565———
OriginalArchitecture=MLP2026.011.568———
OriginalArchitecture=KAN2026.011.571———
M-WarpArchitecture=KAN2026.011.591———
TSMixupArchitecture=MLP2026.011.598———
MBBArchitecture=KAN2026.011.6———
ScalingArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.603———
DBAArchitecture=MLP2026.011.605———
JitterArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.608———
M-WarpArchitecture=MLP2026.011.615———
T-WarpArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.616———
TSMixupArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.622———
ScalingArchitecture=KAN2026.011.623———
M-WarpArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.628———
JitterArchitecture=KAN2026.011.631———
OriginalArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.635———
MBBArchitecture=MLP2026.011.637———
TSMixupArchitecture=KAN2026.011.642———
ScalingArchitecture=MLP2026.011.645———
JitterArchitecture=MLP2026.011.654———
MBBArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.663———
T-WarpArchitecture=KAN2026.011.67———
SNaiveArchitecture=NHITS2026.011.702———
SNaiveArchitecture=MLP2026.011.702———
SNaiveArchitecture=KAN2026.011.702———
T-WarpArchitecture=MLP2026.011.72———
RAFModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=102024.112.3190.146——
BaseModel=Chronos Mini (m), Context Length (C)=102024.113.0660.214——
ChronosContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04——0.06340.0183
SundialContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04——0.04690.0147
Time-MoEContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04——0.0060.0704
TimerContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04——0.0680.2047
WaveMoEContext length=512, Prediction horizon=962026.04——0.00030.0037