Time Series Forecasting on Solar (MSE, MAE)
0.184MSESimpleTM
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SimpleTMPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.01 | 0.184 | 0.247 | |
| TimeMixerHorizon=962026.05 | 0.189 | 0.259 | |
| CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=7202026.05 | 0.189 | 0.247 | |
| PULSELook-back window length (T)=7202026.05 | 0.191 | 0.235 | |
| CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=3362026.05 | 0.194 | 0.255 | |
| PULSELook-back window length (T)=5122026.05 | 0.194 | 0.234 | |
| CFPTLook-back window length (T)=5122026.05 | 0.197 | 0.252 | |
| TQNetPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.01 | 0.198 | 0.256 | |
| STAIRHorizon=962026.05 | 0.198 | 0.254 | |
| PULSELook-back window length (T)=3362026.05 | 0.199 | 0.236 | |
| iTransformerHorizon=962026.05 | 0.203 | 0.237 | |
| CFPTLook-back window length (T)=3362026.05 | 0.207 | 0.256 | |
| vLinearPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.01 | 0.209 | 0.226 | |
| CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=5122026.05 | 0.211 | 0.267 | |
| CFPTLook-back window length (T)=7202026.05 | 0.212 | 0.26 | |
| STAIRHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.214 | 0.268 | |
| TimeXer + DPADBackbone=TimeXer, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.22 | 0.262 | |
| STAIRHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.221 | 0.272 | |
| TimeMixerHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.222 | 0.283 | |
| TimeMixerHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.223 | 0.285 | |
| TimeXerBackbone=TimeXer, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.226 | 0.269 | |
| TimeBridgePublication Year=20252026.05 | 0.227 | 0.236 | |
| CrossLinearPublication Year=20252026.05 | 0.228 | 0.26 | |
| STAIRHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.229 | 0.283 | |
| L-DrivePublication Year=Ours2026.05 | 0.23 | 0.262 | |
| TimeBridge + DPADBackbone=TimeBridge, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.231 | 0.241 | |
| TimeMixerHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.231 | 0.292 | |
| TimeProPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.01 | 0.232 | 0.266 | |
| iTransformer + DPADBackbone=iTransformer, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.233 | 0.256 | |
| iTransformerHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.233 | 0.261 | |
| iTransformerPublication Year=20242026.05 | 0.233 | 0.262 | |
| PatchTSTHorizon=962026.05 | 0.234 | 0.286 | |
| TimeBridgeBackbone=TimeBridge, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.236 | 0.27 | |
| TimeXerPublication Year=20242026.05 | 0.236 | 0.275 | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.237 | 0.264 | |
| UEC-STDBackbone=TimeMixer, Correction Strategy=UEC-STD2026.05 | 0.2401 | 0.278 | |
| TimeMixerBackbone=TimeMixer, Correction Strategy=None2026.05 | 0.2403 | 0.2799 | |
| NsDiff2025.05 | 0.242 | 0.307 | |
| TimesNet + DPADBackbone=TimesNet, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.244 | 0.276 | |
| iTransformerHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.248 | 0.273 | |
| FilterTSPublication Year=20252026.05 | 0.248 | 0.283 | |
| iTransformerHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.249 | 0.275 | |
| TMDM2025.05 | 0.25 | 0.316 | |
| TimesNetHorizon=962026.05 | 0.25 | 0.292 | |
| DLinear + DPADBackbone=DLinear, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.264 | 0.308 | |
| TimesNetBackbone=TimesNet, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.267 | 0.286 | |
| PatchTSTHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.267 | 0.31 | |
| PatchTSTPublication Year=20232026.05 | 0.27 | 0.307 | |
| PatchMLPPublication Year=20252026.05 | 0.277 | 0.293 | |
| PatchTSTHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.289 | 0.317 | |
| PatchTSTHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.29 | 0.315 | |
| DLinearHorizon=962026.05 | 0.29 | 0.378 | |
| TimesNetHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.296 | 0.318 | |
| TimesNetPublication Year=20232026.05 | 0.301 | 0.319 | |
| CrossformerHorizon=962026.05 | 0.31 | 0.331 | |
| TiDEHorizon=962026.05 | 0.312 | 0.399 | |
| TimesNetHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.319 | 0.33 | |
| DLinearHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.32 | 0.398 | |
| UEC-STDBackbone=TimesNet, Correction Strategy=UEC-STD2026.05 | 0.3228 | 0.3532 | |
| DLinearBackbone=DLinear, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.01 | 0.33 | 0.401 | |
| DLinearPublication Year=20232026.05 | 0.33 | 0.401 | |
| TimesNetHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.338 | 0.337 | |
| TiDEHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.339 | 0.416 | |
| TimesNetBackbone=TimesNet, Correction Strategy=None2026.05 | 0.3409 | 0.3441 | |
| DLinearHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.353 | 0.415 | |
| DLinearHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.356 | 0.413 | |
| TiDEHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.368 | 0.43 | |
| TiDEHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.37 | 0.425 | |
| TimeBasePrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.01 | 0.404 | 0.388 | |
| Bolt-S + DAPTBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.467 | 0.47 | |
| Bolt-S + MEMTSBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.472 | 0.462 | |
| TimeGrad2025.05 | 0.475 | 0.446 | |
| Sundial + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.48 | 0.389 | |
| SundialHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.502 | 0.389 | |
| Moirai + DAPTBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.544 | 0.557 | |
| Moirai + MEMTSBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.553 | 0.558 | |
| Chronos-Bolt-Small + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.681 | 0.551 | |
| Bolt-B + MEMTSBackbone=Bolt-B, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.715 | 0.547 | |
| Bolt-B + DAPTBackbone=Bolt-B, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.717 | 0.556 | |
| Chronos-Bolt-Base + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.73 | 0.581 | |
| CrossformerHorizon=1922026.05 | 0.734 | 0.725 | |
| DiffusionTS2025.05 | 0.749 | 0.74 | |
| CrossformerHorizon=3362026.05 | 0.75 | 0.735 | |
| CSDI2025.05 | 0.763 | 0.675 | |
| CrossformerHorizon=7202026.05 | 0.769 | 0.765 | |
| Sundial + RAGBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.771 | 0.552 | |
| TimeDiff2025.05 | 0.821 | 0.713 | |
| Sundial + MEMTSBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.838 | 0.574 | |
| Sundial + DAPTBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.842 | 0.566 | |
| Moirai + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.88 | 0.691 | |
| Moment + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.887 | 0.742 | |
| MomentHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.898 | 0.743 | |
| SundialBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=None, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.907 | 0.594 | |
| Moment + RAGBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.915 | 0.734 | |
| Chronos-Bolt-BaseHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.991 | 0.552 | |
| Chronos-Bolt-SmallHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.995 | 0.57 | |
| Moment + DAPTBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 1.026 | 0.767 | |
| Moment + MEMTSBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 1.044 | 0.771 | |
| MomentBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=None, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 1.071 | 0.782 | |
| Bolt-S + RAGBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 1.091 | 0.641 |