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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Time Series Forecasting on Solar (MSE, MAE)

0.184MSESimpleTM
0.147720.392610.63750.88239May 7, 2025Jul 9, 2025Sep 10, 2025Nov 12, 2025Jan 14, 2026Mar 18, 2026May 20, 2026
Updated 5mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
SimpleTMPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.010.1840.247
TimeMixerHorizon=962026.050.1890.259
CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=7202026.050.1890.247
PULSELook-back window length (T)=7202026.050.1910.235
CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=3362026.050.1940.255
PULSELook-back window length (T)=5122026.050.1940.234
CFPTLook-back window length (T)=5122026.050.1970.252
TQNetPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.010.1980.256
STAIRHorizon=962026.050.1980.254
PULSELook-back window length (T)=3362026.050.1990.236
iTransformerHorizon=962026.050.2030.237
CFPTLook-back window length (T)=3362026.050.2070.256
vLinearPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.010.2090.226
CycleNetLook-back window length (T)=5122026.050.2110.267
CFPTLook-back window length (T)=7202026.050.2120.26
STAIRHorizon=1922026.050.2140.268
TimeXer + DPADBackbone=TimeXer, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.220.262
STAIRHorizon=3362026.050.2210.272
TimeMixerHorizon=1922026.050.2220.283
TimeMixerHorizon=7202026.050.2230.285
TimeXerBackbone=TimeXer, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2260.269
TimeBridgePublication Year=20252026.050.2270.236
CrossLinearPublication Year=20252026.050.2280.26
STAIRHorizon=7202026.050.2290.283
L-DrivePublication Year=Ours2026.050.230.262
TimeBridge + DPADBackbone=TimeBridge, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2310.241
TimeMixerHorizon=3362026.050.2310.292
TimeProPrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.010.2320.266
iTransformer + DPADBackbone=iTransformer, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2330.256
iTransformerHorizon=1922026.050.2330.261
iTransformerPublication Year=20242026.050.2330.262
PatchTSTHorizon=962026.050.2340.286
TimeBridgeBackbone=TimeBridge, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2360.27
TimeXerPublication Year=20242026.050.2360.275
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2370.264
UEC-STDBackbone=TimeMixer, Correction Strategy=UEC-STD2026.050.24010.278
TimeMixerBackbone=TimeMixer, Correction Strategy=None2026.050.24030.2799
NsDiff2025.050.2420.307
TimesNet + DPADBackbone=TimesNet, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2440.276
iTransformerHorizon=3362026.050.2480.273
FilterTSPublication Year=20252026.050.2480.283
iTransformerHorizon=7202026.050.2490.275
TMDM2025.050.250.316
TimesNetHorizon=962026.050.250.292
DLinear + DPADBackbone=DLinear, DPAD Enhancement=true, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2640.308
TimesNetBackbone=TimesNet, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.2670.286
PatchTSTHorizon=1922026.050.2670.31
PatchTSTPublication Year=20232026.050.270.307
PatchMLPPublication Year=20252026.050.2770.293
PatchTSTHorizon=7202026.050.2890.317
PatchTSTHorizon=3362026.050.290.315
DLinearHorizon=962026.050.290.378
TimesNetHorizon=1922026.050.2960.318
TimesNetPublication Year=20232026.050.3010.319
CrossformerHorizon=962026.050.310.331
TiDEHorizon=962026.050.3120.399
TimesNetHorizon=3362026.050.3190.33
DLinearHorizon=1922026.050.320.398
UEC-STDBackbone=TimesNet, Correction Strategy=UEC-STD2026.050.32280.3532
DLinearBackbone=DLinear, DPAD Enhancement=false, Look-back length=96, Prediction length=96, 192, 336, 7202026.010.330.401
DLinearPublication Year=20232026.050.330.401
TimesNetHorizon=7202026.050.3380.337
TiDEHorizon=1922026.050.3390.416
TimesNetBackbone=TimesNet, Correction Strategy=None2026.050.34090.3441
DLinearHorizon=3362026.050.3530.415
DLinearHorizon=7202026.050.3560.413
TiDEHorizon=3362026.050.3680.43
TiDEHorizon=7202026.050.370.425
TimeBasePrediction Horizon=Average of 4 horizons2026.010.4040.388
Bolt-S + DAPTBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.4670.47
Bolt-S + MEMTSBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.4720.462
TimeGrad2025.050.4750.446
Sundial + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.480.389
SundialHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.5020.389
Moirai + DAPTBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.5440.557
Moirai + MEMTSBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.5530.558
Chronos-Bolt-Small + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.6810.551
Bolt-B + MEMTSBackbone=Bolt-B, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.7150.547
Bolt-B + DAPTBackbone=Bolt-B, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.7170.556
Chronos-Bolt-Base + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.730.581
CrossformerHorizon=1922026.050.7340.725
DiffusionTS2025.050.7490.74
CrossformerHorizon=3362026.050.750.735
CSDI2025.050.7630.675
CrossformerHorizon=7202026.050.7690.765
Sundial + RAGBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.7710.552
TimeDiff2025.050.8210.713
Sundial + MEMTSBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.8380.574
Sundial + DAPTBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.8420.566
Moirai + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.880.691
Moment + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.8870.742
MomentHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.8980.743
SundialBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=None, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.9070.594
Moment + RAGBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.020.9150.734
Chronos-Bolt-BaseHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.9910.552
Chronos-Bolt-SmallHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.020.9950.57
Moment + DAPTBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.021.0260.767
Moment + MEMTSBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.021.0440.771
MomentBackbone=Moment, Adaptation Method=None, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.021.0710.782
Bolt-S + RAGBackbone=Bolt-S, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.021.0910.641