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Out-of-sample crash prediction on City Crash and Exposure Data (Total LOCO) (All cities)

-28.19Predictive Log-LikelihoodIndep RE
-137.3588-109.0169-80.675-52.3331Jun 16, 2026

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
Indep RERandom-effects prior=independent hierarchical2026.06-28.19
GP HDV-onlyRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=log-HDV-frequency similarity2026.06-29.57
GP learnedRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=learned embedding2026.06-30.17
GP EuclideanRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=Euclidean covariate distance2026.06-30.23
Single poolRandom-effects prior=none2026.06-133.16