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Out-of-sample crash prediction on City Crash and Exposure Data (Los Angeles held-out)

-7.43Predictive log-likelihoodGP learned
-13.5972-11.9961-10.395-8.7939Jun 16, 2026

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
GP learnedRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=learned embedding2026.06-7.43
Indep RERandom-effects prior=independent hierarchical2026.06-7.62
GP EuclideanRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=Euclidean covariate distance2026.06-7.99
GP HDV-onlyRandom-effects prior=Gaussian Process, Kernel type=log-HDV-frequency similarity2026.06-8.27
Single poolRandom-effects prior=none2026.06-13.36