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LLM Judgement Confidence Estimation on HH-RLHF (test)

0.4763RKPredictive Probability
0.27350.326150.37880.43145May 14, 2026

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.47630.5259
Verbalized ConfidenceJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.47380.523
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.44780.551
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.44090.554
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.39860.5999
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.38410.6154
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.38030.6202
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.3760.6369
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.37510.6374
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.36780.6473
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.35970.6489
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.35710.6537
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.34820.6578
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.32860.6805
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.30940.6945
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.28130.7126