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LLM Judgement Confidence Estimation on TL;DR (test)

0.4269RKVerbalized Confidence
0.2730840.3130170.352950.392883May 14, 2026

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
Verbalized ConfidenceJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.42690.5798
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.41910.5806
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.41590.5852
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.40850.601
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.40290.5987
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.3970.6081
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.39190.6052
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.38950.6123
Predictive ProbabilityJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.37180.6271
Random AnnotatorJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.36460.6364
Simulated AnnotatorsJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.36130.631
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.35840.6401
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Mistral-7B2026.050.35720.6409
Learning Confidence (Vanilla)Judge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.33820.6577
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Llama3-70B2026.050.31370.6813
Margin-Adaptive Confidence RankingJudge Model=Qwen2.5-72B2026.050.2790.7021