Forecasting on Polymarket official (test)
64.99ScoreOurs (GPT-5.4-medium)
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |
|---|---|---|
| Ours (GPT-5.4-medium)Agent Architecture=multi-agent (planner-solver-aggregator), Time Machine=on2026.06 | 64.99 | |
| GPT-5.4-med-SC@5Agent Architecture=multi-agent, Self-Consistency=SC@5, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 62.26 | |
| GPT-5.4-med-SC@3Agent Architecture=multi-agent, Self-Consistency=SC@3, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 60.99 | |
| GLM-5 w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 59.24 | |
| GPT-5.4-medium w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 58.63 | |
| Gemini-3.1-Pro w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 58.45 | |
| Kimi-K2.5 w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 57.91 | |
| GPT-5.4-mediumMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 53.76 | |
| Claude-4.6-Sonnet w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 48.21 | |
| DeepSeek-V4-Flash w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 48.12 | |
| Claude-4.6-SonnetMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 47.97 | |
| Gemini-3.1-ProMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 43.38 | |
| Kimi-K2.5Mode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 42.88 | |
| GLM-5Mode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 41.18 | |
| DeepSeek-V4-FlashMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 34.79 |