Forecasting on FutureX-Past official (test)
54.9L1Gemini-3.1-Pro
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini-3.1-ProMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 54.9 | 12.83 | 0 | 3.33 | 9.36 | |
| DeepSeek-V4-FlashMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 54.9 | 14.09 | 4.69 | 1.7 | 10.39 | |
| GLM-5Mode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 60.79 | 18.85 | 1.96 | 3.33 | 11.75 | |
| Claude-4.6-SonnetMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 62.75 | 15.65 | 0 | 0.99 | 9.78 | |
| Kimi-K2.5Mode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 64.7 | 22.76 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 12.08 | |
| GPT-5.4-mediumMode=closed-book, Tool Usage=no tools2026.06 | 66.67 | 21.62 | 1.01 | 9.45 | 15.06 | |
| GLM-5 w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 68.17 | 58.24 | 8.39 | 24.9 | 30.94 | |
| Gemini-3.1-Pro w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 68.63 | 62.18 | 7.9 | 28.72 | 33.16 | |
| Kimi-K2.5 w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 68.63 | 53.72 | 7.9 | 17.9 | 27.13 | |
| DeepSeek-V4-Flash w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 68.63 | 64 | 12.42 | 29.07 | 35.02 | |
| GPT-5.4-medium w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 69.98 | 66.75 | 12.59 | 22.52 | 33.13 | |
| Claude-4.6-Sonnet w/ toolsAgent Architecture=single-agent, Tool Usage=w/ tools, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 71.94 | 43.21 | 6.91 | 12.22 | 22.8 | |
| GPT-5.4-med-SC@3Agent Architecture=multi-agent, Self-Consistency=SC@3, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 82.35 | 77.89 | 8.89 | 23.9 | 36.04 | |
| Ours (GPT-5.4-medium)Agent Architecture=multi-agent (planner-solver-aggregator), Time Machine=on2026.06 | 84.31 | 71.72 | 14.07 | 31.28 | 39.51 | |
| GPT-5.4-med-SC@5Agent Architecture=multi-agent, Self-Consistency=SC@5, Time Machine=on2026.06 | 88.24 | 78.82 | 8.89 | 23.9 | 36.81 |