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Polymarket dataset and benchmarks · SOTA2 Research

Research Datasets

Polymarket

Benchmarks

Task NameDataset NameSOTA MethodSort

Task NameDataset NameSOTA ResultTrendResults

Probability Forecasting

Polymarket 30% held-out evaluation cliques

0.141Brier Score

20

Polymarket official (test)

64.99Score

15

Judgmental event forecasting

Polymarket (val)

0.305NCE Loss

7

Popular tasks

Forecasting Probability Forecasting Judgmental event forecasting

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