Weather Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification on EM-DAT extreme weather events t2m (test)
1.55Mean Uncertainty WidthNTK-UQ
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 1.55 | 89 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 1.98 | 91 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 1.98 | 90 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 2.12 | 90 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h2026.06 | 2.33 | 100 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 2.44 | 90 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h2026.06 | 2.86 | 90 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 3.02 | 90 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 3.43 | 90 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 3.62 | 90 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=120h2026.06 | 3.84 | 95 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h2026.06 | 4.87 | 85 |