Weather Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification on EM-DAT extreme weather events (msl) (test)
140.4Mean Uncertainty Width (sigma)NTK-UQ
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 140.4 | 89 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 195.96 | 90 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=24h2026.06 | 211.46 | 90 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 524.47 | 91 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 554.99 | 91 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 608.07 | 89 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=FCNv2, Lead Time=120h2026.06 | 618.11 | 80 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=SVD2026.06 | 749.39 | 91 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=24h2026.06 | 776.13 | 95 | |
| NTK-UQBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h, Decomposition=ICA2026.06 | 912.93 | 90 | |
| Conformal predictionBase Model=AIFS, Lead Time=120h2026.06 | 1,236.08 | 90 |