Unimodal Probabilistic Forecasting on ILI from ProbTS (test)
0.147CRPSAurora
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AuroraType=Zero-shot Foundation Models2025.09 | 0.147 | 0.166 | |
| SundialType=Zero-shot Foundation Models2025.09 | 0.148 | 0.166 | |
| Lag-LlamaType=Zero-shot Foundation Models2025.09 | 0.156 | 0.211 | |
| MOIRAIType=Zero-shot Foundation Models2025.09 | 0.159 | 0.197 | |
| ChronosType=Zero-shot Foundation Models2025.09 | 0.17 | 0.197 | |
| TSDiffType=Full-shot Probabilistic End-to-end Supervised Models2025.09 | 0.248 | 0.259 | |
| GRU MAFType=Full-shot Probabilistic End-to-end Supervised Models2025.09 | 0.262 | 0.288 | |
| CSDIType=Full-shot Probabilistic End-to-end Supervised Models2025.09 | 0.276 | 0.29 | |
| TimeGradType=Full-shot Probabilistic End-to-end Supervised Models2025.09 | 0.284 | 0.31 |