Traffic Forecasting on METR-LA
0.311MAEOLinear
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLinearInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.311 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.587 | — | — | |
| vLinearInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.571 | — | — | |
| OLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.337 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.65 | — | — | |
| ReNFLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.348 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.613 | — | — | |
| CARDInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.639 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.++Input Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.363 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.567 | — | — | |
| FilterNetInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.366 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.603 | — | — | |
| LeddamInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.367 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.603 | — | — | |
| FredformerInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.369 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.617 | — | — | |
| TimesNetInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.617 | — | — | |
| TimeMixerInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.372 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.608 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.372 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.614 | — | — | |
| iTrans.Input Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.373 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.627 | — | — | |
| CARDLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.378 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | — | — | |
| OLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.388 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.8 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.++Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.394 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.617 | — | — | |
| ReNFLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.398 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.748 | — | — | |
| FilterNetLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.402 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.67 | — | — | |
| LeddamLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.405 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.68 | — | — | |
| STDNTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.408 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.527 | — | — | |
| FredformerLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.408 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.676 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.679 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.413 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.671 | — | — | |
| iTrans.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.413 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | — | — | |
| FITSLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.416 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.698 | — | — | |
| STGCNTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.417 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.47 | — | — | |
| DLinearInput Length=12 and 36, Prediction Horizon={3,6,9,12} and {24,36,48,60}, Averaging Protocol=Averaged across 8 horizons2026.01 | 0.422 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.58 | — | — | |
| StaeformerTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.425 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.479 | — | — | |
| OLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.427 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.905 | — | — | |
| STDNTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.438 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.555 | — | — | |
| StaeformerTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.438 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.497 | — | — | |
| ReNFLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.438 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.86 | — | — | |
| STGCNTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.442 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.486 | — | — | |
| CARDLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.448 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.874 | — | — | |
| STIDTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.455 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | |
| StemGNNTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.457 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.488 | — | — | |
| OLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.457 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.999 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.++Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.457 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.781 | — | — | |
| DLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=242025.09 | 0.458 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.645 | — | — | |
| STIDTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.468 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.486 | — | — | |
| ReNFLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.471 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.95 | — | — | |
| FilterNetLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.471 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.824 | — | — | |
| LeddamLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.471 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.841 | — | — | |
| FredformerLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.477 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.852 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.841 | — | — | |
| iTrans.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.48 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.867 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.484 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.845 | — | — | |
| FITSLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.49 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.874 | — | — | |
| DLinearTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.491 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.531 | — | — | |
| CARDLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.498 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.017 | — | — | |
| iTransformerTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.637 | — | — | |
| DLinearTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.504 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.529 | — | — | |
| StemGNNTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.511 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.56 | — | — | |
| iTransformerTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.516 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.649 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.++Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.842 | — | — | |
| FilterNetLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.521 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.955 | — | — | |
| FredformerLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.526 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.982 | — | — | |
| LeddamLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.528 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.963 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.531 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.964 | — | — | |
| DLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=362025.09 | 0.533 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.785 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.536 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.972 | — | — | |
| iTrans.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.539 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.017 | — | — | |
| CARDLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.541 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.126 | — | — | |
| FITSLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.546 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.013 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.++Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.551 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.958 | — | — | |
| LeddamLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.556 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.029 | — | — | |
| SparseTSFTraining Loss=FreST Loss2026.02 | 0.559 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.719 | — | — | |
| SparseTSFTraining Loss=MSE Loss2026.02 | 0.561 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.722 | — | — | |
| FilterNetLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.563 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.05 | — | — | |
| FredformerLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.569 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.084 | — | — | |
| iTrans.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.572 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.079 | — | — | |
| TimeMix.Look-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.573 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.047 | — | — | |
| PESD-TSFPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.577 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.013 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.578 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.077 | — | — | |
| DLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=482025.09 | 0.585 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.885 | — | — | |
| FITSLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.589 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.122 | — | — | |
| DLinearLook-back Window Length=36, Prediction Length=602025.09 | 0.623 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.959 | — | — | |
| PESD-TSFPrediction Length (O)=1922026.05 | 0.625 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.142 | — | — | |
| iTRANS*Prediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.023 | — | — | |
| TIMEBASEPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.655 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.028 | — | — | |
| PESD-TSFPrediction Length (L)=AVG2026.05 | 0.657 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.181 | — | — | |
| PESD-TSFPrediction Length (O)=AVG2026.05 | 0.657 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.181 | — | — | |
| TIMEMIXERPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.657 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.051 | — | — | |
| PATCHTSTPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.658 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.053 | — | — | |
| FITSPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.661 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.047 | — | — | |
| PESD-TSFPrediction Length (O)=3362026.05 | 0.663 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.243 | — | — | |
| Sundial + DAPTBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.665 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.327 | — | — | |
| Sundial + MEMTSBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.665 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.327 | — | — | |
| Moirai + MEMTSBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=MEMTS, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.666 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.217 | — | — | |
| SPARSETSFPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.667 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.056 | — | — | |
| Moirai + DAPTBackbone=Moirai, Adaptation Method=DAPT, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.672 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.193 | — | — | |
| PATCHTSTPrediction Length (O)=1922026.05 | 0.672 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.134 | — | — | |
| Sundial + RAGBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=RAG, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.682 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.338 | — | — | |
| SundialBackbone=Sundial, Adaptation Method=None, Forecasting Horizon (H)=962026.02 | 0.684 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.368 | — | — | |
| DLINEARPrediction Length (O)=962026.05 | 0.685 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.096 | — | — | |
| TIMEMIXERPrediction Length (O)=1922026.05 | 0.689 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.163 | — | — | |
| Sundial + MEMTSHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.702 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.408 | — | — | |
| SundialHorizon=Avg, Zero-shot=true2026.02 | 0.706 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.436 | — | — | |
| PatchTSTPrediction Length (L)=AVG2026.05 | 0.706 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.21 | — | — | |
| PATCHTSTPrediction Length (O)=3362026.05 | 0.706 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.25 | — | — |