Probabilistic Forecasting on Traffic
0.049CRPSTSDiff-Q
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSDiff-Qguidance=quantile guidance2023.07 | 0.049 | — | — | |
| TSDiff-Condvariant=conditional2023.07 | 0.05 | — | — | |
| DeepARarchitecture=RNN-based2023.07 | 0.054 | — | — | |
| CSDImodel=conditional diffusion2023.07 | 0.054 | — | — | |
| TSDiff-MSguidance=mean square guidance2023.07 | 0.062 | — | — | |
| MQ-CNNarchitecture=CNN-based2023.07 | 0.067 | — | — | |
| Seasonal Naive2023.07 | 0.069 | — | — | |
| ETS2023.07 | 0.072 | — | — | |
| DeepStatemodel=state space model2023.07 | 0.075 | — | — | |
| Transformerarchitecture=self-attention-based2023.07 | 0.076 | — | — | |
| TFTarchitecture=Temporal Fusion Transformer2023.07 | 0.086 | — | — | |
| Linear2023.07 | 0.088 | — | — | |
| TimePrismNumber of scenarios (N)=625, Input length=242025.09 | 0.111 | — | — | |
| TimePrism-16Number of scenarios (N)=16, Input length=242025.09 | 0.159 | — | — | |
| TimeGrad2025.09 | 0.162 | — | — | |
| LSG-VAEHorizon=96, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.18 | — | — | |
| K2VAEHorizon=96, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.186 | — | — | |
| LSG-VAEHorizon=192, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.187 | — | — | |
| K2VAEHorizon=192, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.188 | — | — | |
| LSG-VAELook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.19 | 1.363 | — | |
| LSG-VAEHorizon=720, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.192 | — | — | |
| LSG-VAEHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.192 | — | 0.236 | |
| LSG-VAEHorizon=336, Context Length=962026.03 | 0.194 | — | — | |
| K2VAEHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.2 | — | 0.248 | |
| GRU NVPHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.211 | — | 0.264 | |
| PatchTSTHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.214 | — | 0.253 | |
| TimeGradHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.22 | — | 0.263 | |
| TACTiS-22025.09 | 0.257 | — | — | |
| TimeMCLNumber of hypotheses=162025.09 | 0.262 | — | — | |
| iTransformerHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.284 | — | 0.361 | |
| KoopaHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.358 | — | 0.432 | |
| FITSHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.374 | — | 0.453 | |
| NsDiffLook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.378 | 3.601 | — | |
| TSDiffHorizon (L)=7202026.03 | 0.391 | — | 0.478 | |
| TimeGradLook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.407 | 4.581 | — | |
| interPDNForecast horizon=1922025.11 | 0.507 | — | — | |
| ChronosForecast horizon=1922025.11 | 0.518 | — | — | |
| MOIRAIForecast horizon=1922025.11 | 0.534 | — | — | |
| TMDMForecast horizon=1922025.11 | 0.541 | — | — | |
| TMDMLook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.557 | 10.676 | — | |
| DiffusionTSForecast horizon=1922025.11 | 0.568 | — | — | |
| TempFlowBackbone=LSTM2025.09 | 0.601 | — | — | |
| Trf.FlowBackbone=Transformer2025.09 | 0.607 | — | — | |
| DiffusionTSLook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.668 | 5.958 | — | |
| TimeDiffLook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 0.771 | 15.439 | — | |
| ETS2025.09 | 0.813 | — | — | |
| DeepAR2025.09 | 0.826 | — | — | |
| CSDILook-back window length=168, Prediction horizon=1922026.03 | 1.418 | 13.613 | — |