Prevalence Estimation on CAP Law & Crime Country shift Claude Opus 4.6 (test)
0.1Prevalence Estimation Bias (pp)Importance-weighted estimation
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |
|---|---|---|
| Importance-weighted estimationInput=Target-specific density ratio2026.04 | 0.1 | |
| MCGrad (binary)Input=Binary labels, Initialization=Base-rate2026.04 | 0.4 | |
| MCGrad (scores)Input=Probability scores2026.04 | 0.4 | |
| Isotonic regressionInput=Probability scores2026.04 | 0.9 | |
| Rogan-GladenInput=Binary labels2026.04 | 1.7 | |
| Classify & CountInput=Fraction of Yes labels2026.04 | 3.3 | |
| Saerens-Latinne-DecaesteckerInput=Probability scores2026.04 | 9.5 |