Prevalence Estimation on CAP Law & Crime Baseline Claude Opus 4.6 (test)
0.1Prevalence Estimation Bias (pp)Importance-weighted estimation
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |
|---|---|---|
| Importance-weighted estimationInput=Target-specific density ratio, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 0.1 | |
| Isotonic regressionInput=Probability scores, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 0.1 | |
| MCGrad (binary)Input=Binary labels, Initialization=Base-rate, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 0.1 | |
| MCGrad (scores)Input=Probability scores, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 0.2 | |
| Rogan-GladenInput=Binary labels, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 0.5 | |
| Classify & CountInput=Fraction of Yes labels, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 2.2 | |
| Saerens-Latinne-DecaesteckerInput=Probability scores, Base LLM=Claude Opus 4.62026.04 | 7.4 |