Epidemic Forecasting on China TB medium-term (test)
12.3SMAPEGSTAR
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSTARModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models2026.03 | 12.3 | 320.86 | 951.75 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 139.57 | 129.13 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 320.86 | — | |
| NHiTSModel Type=Temporal Models2026.03 | 12.91 | 328.93 | 440.73 | 1.21 | 1.05 | 151.57 | 145.13 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 328.93 | — | |
| LSTMModel Type=Temporal Models2026.03 | 14.96 | 350.56 | 728.07 | 1.49 | 0.82 | 168.19 | 164.64 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 350.56 | — | |
| TransformersModel Type=Temporal Models2026.03 | 15.29 | 368.59 | 450.99 | 1.42 | 1.22 | 161.44 | 150.02 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 368.59 | — | |
| STESNModel Type=ST-Engression Models2026.03 | 15.35 | 363.11 | 666.15 | 1.54 | 0.75 | 158.26 | 135.32 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 343.4 | 11,485.91 | |
| MVENModel Type=ST-Engression Models2026.03 | 15.51 | 359.42 | 744.89 | 1.53 | 0.81 | 157.36 | 112.32 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 304.96 | 7,294.79 | |
| GCENModel Type=ST-Engression Models2026.03 | 16.72 | 415.46 | 932.84 | 1.76 | 1.05 | 167.72 | 123.15 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 361.44 | 9,992.48 | |
| STENModel Type=ST-Engression Models2026.03 | 17.04 | 404.03 | 812.76 | 1.72 | 0.91 | 162.49 | 112.83 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 347.77 | 8,795.67 | |
| DeepARModel Type=Probabilistic Models2026.03 | 17.11 | 405.15 | 718.91 | 1.72 | 0.81 | 177.31 | 99.45 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 328.87 | 5,154.01 | |
| STGCNModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models2026.03 | 19.39 | 486.08 | 1,226.49 | 2.06 | 1.38 | 206.25 | 187.85 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 486.08 | — | |
| STARMAModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models2026.03 | 29.03 | 601.67 | 963.32 | 2.56 | 1.08 | 437.17 | 505.34 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 601.67 | — | |
| TCNModel Type=Temporal Models2026.03 | 31.01 | 544.52 | 625.19 | 2.19 | 1.74 | 351.68 | 391.38 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 544.52 | — | |
| GpGpModel Type=Probabilistic Models2026.03 | 64.06 | 1,269.76 | 1,705.62 | 5.39 | 1.92 | 517.96 | 220.75 | 0.57 | 0.32 | 955.18 | 9,957.39 | |
| DiffSTGModel Type=Probabilistic Models2026.03 | 65.28 | 1,370.15 | 1,728.1 | 5.82 | 1.94 | 622.62 | 256.89 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 1,062.12 | 11,358.48 | |
| Prob-iTransformerModel Type=Probabilistic Models2026.03 | 122.25 | 1,884.4 | 2,470.48 | 8 | 2.78 | 1,339.22 | 1,301.16 | 0.85 | 1.24 | 1,704.94 | 48,839.51 |