Epidemic Forecasting on Japan TB medium-term (test)
19.06SMAPETransformers
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TransformersModel Category=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 19.06 | 475.54 | 516.28 | 1.66 | 1.28 | 168.98 | 134.59 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 475.54 | — | |
| GCENModel Category=ST-Engression Models (Proposed), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 22.38 | 5.99 | 10.51 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 2.05 | 1.06 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 5.08 | 129.1 | |
| GCENModel Type=ST-Engression Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 22.41 | 5.42 | 8.99 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 1.97 | 1.07 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 4.44 | 97.62 | |
| STENModel Category=ST-Engression Models (Proposed), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 22.45 | 6 | 10.45 | 0.7 | 0.78 | 2.11 | 1.08 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 5.36 | 157.69 | |
| STENModel Type=ST-Engression Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 22.58 | 5.58 | 9.29 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 4.46 | 86.96 | |
| STESNModel Category=ST-Engression Models (Proposed), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 23.16 | 6.09 | 10.31 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 2.11 | 1.48 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 5.78 | 205.3 | |
| LSTMModel Type=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 23.21 | 5.79 | 9.35 | 0.67 | 0.7 | 2 | 1.55 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 5.79 | — | |
| MVENModel Category=ST-Engression Models (Proposed), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 23.24 | 6.37 | 11.01 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 1.94 | 0.92 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 5.69 | 169.59 | |
| STESNModel Type=ST-Engression Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 23.32 | 5.48 | 8.29 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 2.01 | 1.37 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 4.78 | 141.29 | |
| NHiTSModel Type=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 23.53 | 5.85 | 6.98 | 0.64 | 0.6 | 2.14 | 1.75 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 5.85 | — | |
| MVENModel Type=ST-Engression Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 23.79 | 6.12 | 10.2 | 0.71 | 0.76 | 1.9 | 0.82 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 5.1 | 119.69 | |
| NHiTSModel Category=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 23.88 | 6.72 | 8.06 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 1.99 | 1.31 | 0.2 | 0.09 | 6.72 | — | |
| TransformersModel Type=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 24 | 6.03 | 7.19 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 2.1 | 1.64 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 6.03 | — | |
| GSTARModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 25.06 | 5.64 | 8.49 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 2.17 | 1.85 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 5.64 | — | |
| LSTMModel Category=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 25.37 | 7.54 | 13.04 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.94 | 1.03 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 7.54 | — | |
| STARMAModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 25.39 | 5.78 | 8.76 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 3.22 | 3.38 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 5.78 | — | |
| GSTARModel Category=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 26.14 | 6.58 | 10.31 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 2.26 | 1.74 | 0.2 | 0.11 | 6.58 | — | |
| STARMAModel Category=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 26.33 | 6.07 | 9.21 | 0.69 | 0.68 | 3.38 | 3.55 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 6.07 | — | |
| TCNModel Category=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 27.81 | 578.56 | 618.39 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 293.54 | 295.67 | 0.36 | 0.1 | 578.56 | — | |
| DeepARModel Type=Probabilistic Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 30.16 | 9.11 | 15.23 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 3.24 | 1.16 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 6.35 | 53.84 | |
| DeepARModel Category=Probabilistic Models (Temporal & Spatiotemporal), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 30.79 | 9.91 | 16.51 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 3.44 | 1.21 | 0.3 | 0.13 | 6.97 | 61.03 | |
| TCNModel Type=Temporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 37.48 | 10.72 | 12.03 | 1.11 | 0.98 | 3.4 | 2.42 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 10.72 | — | |
| Prob-iTransformerModel Type=Probabilistic Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 37.54 | 11.35 | 19.42 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 4.16 | 1.42 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 8.07 | 68.41 | |
| STGCNModel Category=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 39.24 | 14.54 | 27.57 | 1.66 | 2.03 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 14.54 | — | |
| STGCNModel Type=Spatiotemporal Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 44.43 | 16.21 | 27.94 | 1.87 | 2.08 | 3.38 | 1.01 | 0.5 | 0.11 | 16.21 | — | |
| Prob-iTransformerModel Category=Probabilistic Models (Temporal & Spatiotemporal), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 47.01 | 15.4 | 24.11 | 1.76 | 1.77 | 5.55 | 1.86 | 0.46 | 0.2 | 11.15 | 103.48 | |
| DiffSTGModel Type=Probabilistic Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 87.55 | 32.55 | 40.37 | 3.76 | 3 | 19.98 | 8.4 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 27.88 | 344.98 | |
| DiffSTGModel Category=Probabilistic Models (Temporal & Spatiotemporal), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 92.02 | 36.54 | 45.95 | 4.17 | 3.38 | 22.86 | 9.45 | 1.11 | 0.93 | 32.04 | 395.52 | |
| GpGpModel Type=Probabilistic Models, Forecast Horizon=12-month2026.03 | 105.99 | 52.6 | 63.08 | 6.08 | 4.69 | 27.72 | 11.1 | 1.65 | 1.12 | 39.05 | 431.31 | |
| GpGpModel Category=Probabilistic Models (Temporal & Spatiotemporal), Forecast Horizon=24-month2026.03 | 125.67 | 106.12 | 127.24 | 12.12 | 9.35 | 48.96 | 18.74 | 3.21 | 1.87 | 70.39 | 650.09 |