Effect-size forecasting on Query2Effect level-0 queries (test) benchmark leaderboard · SOTA2 Research

Effect-size forecasting on Query2Effect level-0 queries (test)

0.2449RMSEGold RCT → ModernBERTr

Evaluation Results

Method
Gold RCT → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.2449	0.1574	0.2342	0.4844	0.389	0.734	0.6197	0.687
Synthetic-RCT(GPT-5.2) → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.2601	0.1722	0.1359	0.382	0.3026	0.7308	0.583	0.6802
ModernBERTq2026.05	0.2659	0.1743	0.097	0.348	0.2988	0.7182	0.5771	0.6678
Synthetic-RCT(GPT-OSS-20B) → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.2685	0.179	0.0807	0.3349	0.3002	0.7263	0.5771	0.6539
mean-effect2026.05	0.2788	0.1946	-0.0797	—	—	0.7302	0.4846	0.453
GPT-5.22026.05	0.3165	0.2374	-0.2801	0.27	0.3008	0.6523	0.5233	0.6222
retrieval-lookup2026.05	0.388	0.2526	-0.9235	0.2423	0.164	0.678	0.51	0.533
Gemini 2.5 Flash2026.05	0.4503	0.3542	-1.5908	0.1711	0.2014	0.5936	0.5136	0.4137
GPT-OSS 120B2026.05	0.49	0.416	-2.0682	0.1977	0.2213	0.598	0.4888	0.3298