Effect-size forecasting on Query2Effect non-health cross-sector (test ood) benchmark leaderboard · SOTA2 Research

Effect-size forecasting on Query2Effect non-health cross-sector (test ood)

0.2211RMSEGold RCT → ModernBERTr

Evaluation Results

Method
Gold RCT → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.2211	0.1302	0.0628	0.271	0.2618	73.95	60.3	63.61
Synthetic-RCT(GPT-5.2) → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.2241	0.1375	0.0591	0.265	0.223	73.33	57.88	63.56
Synthetic-RCT(GPT-OSS-20B) → ModernBERTr2026.05	0.231	0.1402	0.0019	0.1818	0.1589	74.93	57.12	63.23
mean-effect2026.05	0.2444	0.181	-0.1205	—	—	72.32	47.5	43.5
ModernBERTq2026.05	0.2578	0.1773	-0.0603	0.1095	0.1138	71.23	55.7	58.23
GPT-5.22026.05	0.2782	0.2089	-0.4513	0.2503	0.252	66.31	48.99	57.8
Gemini 2.5 Flash2026.05	0.3793	0.3027	-1.6972	0.2026	0.1988	67.66	45.64	43.77
retrieval-lookup2026.05	0.4084	0.2588	-2.1269	0.0279	0.0379	68.23	45.23	44.02
GPT-OSS 120B2026.05	0.4505	0.3936	-2.8057	0.1659	0.1918	66.78	45.04	34