Learning to Predict Future-Aligned Research Proposals with Language Models
About
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to assist ideation in research, but evaluating the quality of LLM-generated research proposals remains difficult: novelty and soundness are hard to measure automatically, and large-scale human evaluation is costly. We propose a verifiable alternative by reframing proposal generation as a time-sliced scientific forecasting problem. Given a research question and inspiring papers available before a cutoff time, the model generates a structured proposal and is evaluated by whether it anticipates research directions that appear in papers published after the time. We operationalize this objective with the Future Alignment Score (FAS), computed via retrieval and LLM-based semantic scoring against a held-out future corpus. To train models, we build a time-consistent dataset of 21,835 paper occurrences across 3,642 instances from targets and their pre-cutoff citations, and synthesize reasoning traces that teach gap identification and inspiration borrowing. Across Llama-3.1 and Qwen2.5 models, future-aligned tuning improves future alignment over unaligned baselines (up to +10.6% overall FAS), and domain-expert human evaluation corroborates improved proposal quality. Finally, we demonstrate practical impact by implementing two model-generated proposals with a code agent, obtaining 4.17% accuracy gain on MATH from a new prompting strategy and consistent improvements for a novel model-merging method. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/Arthur-Heng/future-aligned-proposals.