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Solar irradiance forecasting research benchmarks · SOTA2 Research

Solar irradiance forecasting

Benchmarks

Dataset NameSOTA MethodSort

Dataset NameSOTA methodMetricTrendResultsLast Updated

NREL data (0-4 hours)

91.452MAE

10

Jun 5, 2026

Daytime solar irradiance 4-hour ahead (test)

Chronos+Transformer

91.4PICP

8

Apr 21, 2026

Daytime solar irradiance 2-hour ahead (test)

91PICP

8

Apr 21, 2026

Daytime solar irradiance 1-hour ahead (test)

91.1PICP

8

Apr 21, 2026

Daytime solar irradiance 15-minute ahead (test)

92.3PICP

8

Apr 21, 2026

Independent 2020–2024 (Stress-Test)

18.31RMSE (Wh/m²)

6

Apr 15, 2026

Popular datasets

Daytime solar irradiance NREL Independent

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