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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Counterfactual outcome prediction

Benchmarks

DatasetSOTA methodMetricTrendResultsLast updated

MIMIC III semi-synthetic (800/200/200)

Causal Transformer

0.2RMSE

57

Feb 26, 2026

MIMIC-III semi-synthetic (N=3000) (test)

0.24RMSE

35

Feb 26, 2026

MIMIC-III semi-synthetic (N=2000) (test)

0.27RMSE

35

Feb 26, 2026

MIMIC-III semi-synthetic (N=1000) (test)

0.3RMSE

35

Feb 26, 2026

MIMIC-III semi-synthetic (counterfactual random trajectories) (test)

40.8Score (τ=1)

6

Mar 13, 2026

MIMIC-III (test)

6.69RMSE (tau=1)

6

Mar 13, 2026

SEMs n=1024 fit samples (out-of-distribution)

TabPFN-CFM W/Graph

0.572MSE

2

Jun 26, 2026

in-distribution SEMs (n=1024 fit samples)

0.215MSE

2

Jun 26, 2026