Uncertainty Estimation on Secret-word taboo dataset (random-split)
42.4AccuracyBootstrap
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=0.52026.05 | 42.4 | 19.3 | 21.3 | 1.029 | 81 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=0.32026.05 | 41.9 | 33.4 | 30.3 | 2.636 | 78.4 | |
| Steering sensitivityBackbone=Qwen3-8B2026.05 | 41.8 | 40.4 | 35.4 | 4.401 | 76.3 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.252026.05 | 41.8 | 40.8 | 37.1 | 4.673 | 73.7 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.1252026.05 | 41.5 | 54.4 | 53.4 | 10.77 | 56.3 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.1252026.05 | 41.5 | 49.3 | 46.1 | 7.823 | 66.9 | |
| Log-prob (no offset)Backbone=Qwen3-8B, Offset usage=no offset2026.05 | 41.4 | 25.6 | 24.9 | 0.748 | 82.4 | |
| Log-prob (with offset)Backbone=Qwen3-8B, Offset usage=with offset2026.05 | 41.4 | 25.5 | 24.6 | 0.73 | 84 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=0.72026.05 | 41.4 | 9.7 | 17.1 | 0.558 | 83 | |
| Direct (numeric)Backbone=Qwen3-8B2026.05 | 41.4 | 58.2 | 58 | 12.66 | 51.6 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.52026.05 | 41.3 | 26.3 | 24.7 | 1.608 | 80.3 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.252026.05 | 40.3 | 54.7 | 53.2 | 10.28 | 57.9 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=1.02026.05 | 40.2 | 5.7 | 16.3 | 0.498 | 82.9 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=1.32026.05 | 38.7 | 7.6 | 17.1 | 0.519 | 82.3 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3-8B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.52026.05 | 37.6 | 55.1 | 53.1 | 9.358 | 60.1 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3-8B, Temperature (T)=1.52026.05 | 36.7 | 8.3 | 17.3 | 0.522 | 82.4 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.1252026.05 | 23.6 | 66.8 | 62 | 10.87 | 65.3 | |
| Log-prob (no offset)Backbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Offset usage=no offset2026.05 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 0.484 | 84.2 | |
| Log-prob (with offset)Backbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Offset usage=with offset2026.05 | 23.4 | 13.1 | 15.8 | 0.489 | 83.5 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.1252026.05 | 23.4 | 74 | 72.9 | 15.61 | 52.8 | |
| Direct (numeric)Backbone=Qwen3.6-27B2026.05 | 23.4 | 75.3 | 75.2 | 16.02 | 40.4 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=0.32026.05 | 23.3 | 47.9 | 36.9 | 2.367 | 83.7 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.252026.05 | 23.3 | 56.9 | 48.2 | 5.658 | 76.7 | |
| Steering sensitivityBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B2026.05 | 23.2 | 50.1 | 41.3 | 4.172 | 72.5 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=0.52026.05 | 23.1 | 32.7 | 22.2 | 0.8 | 86.4 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=0.72026.05 | 23 | 21.8 | 15.7 | 0.514 | 86.3 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.252026.05 | 23 | 73.8 | 72.2 | 15.04 | 54.7 | |
| MCMC agreementBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC agreement threshold=0.52026.05 | 22.8 | 39 | 27.4 | 1.383 | 85.8 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=1.02026.05 | 22.5 | 14.7 | 13 | 0.431 | 85.1 | |
| MCMC acceptBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, MCMC acceptance threshold=0.52026.05 | 21.1 | 74.6 | 72.2 | 13.97 | 57.4 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=1.32026.05 | 20.9 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0.415 | 83.7 | |
| BootstrapBackbone=Qwen3.6-27B, Temperature (T)=1.52026.05 | 20.6 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 0.422 | 81.2 |