Time Series Forecasting Uncertainty Quantification on GIFT-Eval Bench10
90nWinkUniform
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UniformBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 90 | 46 | 79 | |
| HopCPTBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 90 | 47 | 77 | |
| ACIBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 84 | 48 | 80 | |
| KOWCPIBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 84 | 35 | 70 | |
| ResCPBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 83 | 42 | 72 | |
| UniformBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 81 | 39 | 79 | |
| HopCPTBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 81 | 40 | 79 | |
| UniformBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 77 | 38 | 79 | |
| HopCPTBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 77 | 39 | 78 | |
| ACIBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 77 | 41 | 80 | |
| KOWCPIBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 74 | 27 | 65 | |
| KOWCPIBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 74 | 28 | 67 | |
| ACIBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 73 | 40 | 80 | |
| KOWCPIBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 73 | 30 | 70 | |
| UniformBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 72 | 36 | 79 | |
| ResCPBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 72 | 37 | 72 | |
| TotoUQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 71 | 43 | 76 | |
| HopCPTBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 70 | 38 | 78 | |
| ResCPBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 70 | 36 | 76 | |
| ACIBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 69 | 38 | 80 | |
| ResCPBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 68 | 36 | 77 | |
| RareCPBackbone=ARIMA, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 68 | 43 | 80 | |
| TimesFM-2.5UQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 66 | 42 | 83 | |
| TabPFN-TSUQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 66 | 38 | 78 | |
| Chronos-2UQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 64 | 38 | 76 | |
| RareCPBackbone=TabPFN-TS, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 63 | 39 | 79 | |
| Moirai-2UQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 63 | 40 | 80 | |
| RareCPBackbone=TimesFM-2.5, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 62 | 40 | 80 | |
| RareCPBackbone=TiRex, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 61 | 38 | 80 | |
| TiRexUQ Type=Foundation model native UQ, Target Coverage=80%2026.05 | 59 | 39 | 80 |