Supply chain disruption forecasting on Held-out (test)
0.0791Brier ScoreTrained model
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trained modelFine-tuned=true2026.04 | 0.0791 | 16.9 | 0.0525 | 34.78 | |
| Historical BaselineMode=Constant probability2026.04 | 0.0952 | 0 | — | — | |
| GPT-5Type=General-purpose model2026.04 | 0.1203 | 26.4 | 0.1304 | 8.7 | |
| GPT-OSS-120BParameters=120B2026.04 | 0.1433 | 50.5 | 0.174 | 13.04 |