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ResearchFormerly WizWand

SIR Dynamics Forecasting on Erdős-Rényi graphs (out-of-sample)

12.86MAPEABM-NN
-14.3512169.3244353536.6756Dec 5, 2025
Updated 8mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
ABM-NNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1212.86
ABM-NNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1213.88
ABM-NNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1215.51
ABM-NNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1220.43
ABM-NNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1222.69
ABM-NNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1222.76
ABM-NNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1228.62
ABM-NNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1228.91
ABM-NNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1230
ABM-NNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1230.61
ABM-NNNetwork Size=Average2025.1231.86
ABM-NNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1232.22
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1237.26
SAGENetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1238.08
GCNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1238.39
SAGENetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1241.64
GCNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1241.84
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1242.23
ABM-NNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1242.23
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1242.35
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1242.57
GCNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1243.33
ABM-NNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1243.83
SAGENetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1244.23
GCNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1247.28
GCNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1247.31
GCNNetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1247.43
SAGENetwork Size=100, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1248.4
ABM-NNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1250.21
GCNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1252.44
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1256.02
ABM-NNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1257.24
ABM-NNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1257.76
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1260.94
GCNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1261.53
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1262.18
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1262.18
GCNNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1265.01
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1265.25
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1266.55
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1266.79
GCNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1269.55
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1271.92
GCNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1272.36
GCNNetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.1277.15
SAGENetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1277.42
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=Average2025.1279.84
SAGENetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1282.6
SAGENetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.1284.16
GCNNetwork Size=Average2025.1288.85
SAGENetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1294.29
SAGENetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.1295.87
SAGENetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.1298.3
SAGENetwork Size=150, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.12115.59
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.12119.99
SAGENetwork Size=50, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.12127.55
GCNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.12136.97
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.12157.22
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.12161.52
TRANSFORMERNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.12162.49
SAGENetwork Size=Average2025.12188.47
GCNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.12200.41
GCNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.12200.89
GCNNetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.12219.77
SAGENetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=1%2025.12362.73
SAGENetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=10%2025.12485.88
SAGENetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=5%2025.12525.58
SAGENetwork Size=200, Initial infection ratio (I0)=20%2025.12693.14