Single-step forecasting on GiftEval (held-out evaluation set) benchmark leaderboard · SOTA2 Research

Single-step forecasting on GiftEval (held-out evaluation set)

10.89CRPSChronos-2

Evaluation Results

Method	Links
Chronos-22026.05		10.89	2,886	13.38	0.83	13.38	0.192	0.192	0.192	13.3	0.077	72.4
ARIMA2026.05		11.94	3,327	14.86	0.805	14.86	0.201	0.201	0.201	13.8	0.083	70.8
Chronos-Bolt2026.05		14.94	5,409	18.91	0.934	18.91	0.24	0.24	0.24	14.6	0.096	67.8
NanoTS LoRA Attn2026.05		20.1	8,818	24.68	1.607	24.68	0.243	0.243	0.243	16.8	0.107	47.8
NanoTS LoRA Attn+IO2026.05		22.54	11,220	26.11	1.702	26.11	0.27	0.27	0.27	17.4	0.124	45
Chronos-T52026.05		29.88	12,764	32.99	1.212	32.99	0.173	0.173	0.173	12.4	0.073	64.6
NanoTS Full Finetune2026.05		49.51	10,461	27.6	1.561	27.6	0.286	0.286	0.286	17.5	0.199	45.3
NanoTS LoRA Attn+IO2026.05		50.68	59,864	62.9	3.438	62.9	0.599	0.599	0.599	28.1	0.22	47.6
NanoTS IO Only2026.05		59.56	84,846	66.53	3.43	66.53	0.614	0.614	0.614	30	0.25	46.9
NanoTS IO Only2026.05		111.6	280,932	142.3	6.565	142.3	0.706	0.706	0.706	46.2	0.313	54
NanoTS Full Finetune2026.05		151.8	415,339	180.4	7.819	180.4	0.914	0.914	0.914	53.2	0.463	54.2
NanoTS LoRA Attn2026.05		154.5	430,387	182.2	7.872	182.2	0.917	0.917	0.917	53.2	0.481	53.5
Qwen3 Text2026.05		213.5	2.6	213.5	376,667	213.5	39,508	39,508	39,508	56.3	19,754	50.3