Probabilistic Forecasting on Electricity (CRPS, MSIS, ACE90)
0.054CRPSDlinear + ProbRes
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dlinear + ProbResBackbone=Dlinear, Uncertainty Method=ProbRes2026.06 | 0.054 | 7.602 | 0.055 | |
| Dlinear + bootstrapBackbone=Dlinear, Uncertainty Method=Bootstrap2026.06 | 0.057 | 7.986 | 0.096 | |
| PatchTST + ProbResBackbone=PatchTST, Uncertainty Method=ProbRes2026.06 | 0.063 | 5.825 | 0.041 | |
| PatchTST + bootstrapBackbone=PatchTST, Uncertainty Method=Bootstrap2026.06 | 0.064 | 6.599 | 0.081 | |
| Dlinear + qBackbone=Dlinear, Uncertainty Method=Quantile Regression2026.06 | 0.065 | 8.38 | 0.065 | |
| PatchTST + qBackbone=PatchTST, Uncertainty Method=Quantile Regression2026.06 | 0.072 | 6.758 | 0.044 | |
| PatchTST + ConformalBackbone=PatchTST, Uncertainty Method=Conformal2026.06 | 0.106 | 10.48 | 0.086 | |
| Dlinear + CQRBackbone=Dlinear, Uncertainty Method=CQR2026.06 | 0.166 | 17.18 | 0.087 | |
| TimeMixer + ProbResBackbone=TimeMixer, Uncertainty Method=ProbRes2026.06 | 0.235 | 10.67 | 0.007 | |
| TimeMixer + qBackbone=TimeMixer, Uncertainty Method=Quantile Regression2026.06 | 0.254 | 14.47 | 0.064 | |
| TimeMixer + ConformalBackbone=TimeMixer, Uncertainty Method=Conformal2026.06 | 0.258 | 12.67 | 0.03 | |
| TimeMixer + bootstrapBackbone=TimeMixer, Uncertainty Method=Bootstrap2026.06 | 0.271 | 9.999 | 0.095 |