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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Population property estimation on DICES

0.001Bias (MAE)BQ-RPF Rounded
-0.012560.078970.17050.26203Sep 26, 2025Oct 31, 2025Dec 5, 2025Jan 9, 2026Feb 13, 2026Mar 20, 2026Apr 25, 2026
Updated 6mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
BQ-RPF RoundedTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.001——
BQ-RPFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.009——
BQ-RPFTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.01——
BQ-RPF RoundedBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=true2026.040.013——
BQ-SFTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.014——
BQ-TPFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.014——
BQ-SF RoundedBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=true2026.040.018——
BQ-SF RandTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.018——
DR (Riesz)2025.090.02860.09
BQ-SFBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.022——
BQ-RPF RandTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.022——
BQ-TPF RandBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.025——
BQ-SF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.027——
BQ-RPF RandBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.027——
BQ-SFBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=false2026.040.027——
BQ-SFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.03——
BQ-TPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.031——
BQ-SF RandBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.037——
BQ-TPFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.038——
RePPI2025.090.04400.05
BQ-RPFBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=false2026.040.049——
PAR2025.090.0540.02
DR (Classical)2025.090.05320.06
BQ-TPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.05——
BQ-TPF RandTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.053——
Random SamplingBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Random2026.040.056——
RF+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Standard2026.040.056——
LR+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Standard2026.040.056——
BQ-TPF RandBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.057——
BQ-SF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.058——
BQ-SF RoundedTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.058——
BQ-RPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.058——
RF+LUREBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B2026.040.059——
LR+LUREBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B2026.040.059——
PPI++2025.090.0610.03
LR+ISBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Importance Sampling2026.040.061——
BQ-RPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.061——
BQ-SF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.062——
RF+ISBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Importance Sampling2026.040.063——
BQ-RPF RandBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.064——
BQ-TPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.068——
BQ-TPFTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.069——
BQ-RPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.069——
BQ-RPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.069——
BQ-RPFBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.07——
RF+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.072——
BQ-TPFBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.072——
BQ-TPFBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=false2026.040.073——
LR+LURETarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.074——
RF+LURETarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.075——
LR+LUREBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.076——
BQ-RPF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.078——
BQ-RPFBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.078——
LR+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.079——
RF+LUREBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.079——
RF+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.08——
LR+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.08——
LR+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet2026.040.08——
RF+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Standard2026.040.085——
RF+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet2026.040.086——
BQ-SF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.087——
BQ-TPF RoundedBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.094——
Sample Average2025.090.100.07
LR+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet2026.040.106——
Random SamplingBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Uniform Random2026.040.107——
BQ-RPF RoundedBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.108——
RF+ISBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.108——
Random SamplingBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Random Sampling2026.040.109——
Random SamplingBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.112——
BQ-SF RandBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.117——
BQ-SFBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.117——
BQ-SF RoundedBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.117——
BQ-SF RandBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Random Selection + BQ2026.040.117——
BQ-RPFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.117——
BQ-RPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.117——
BQ-SFBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.117——
BQ-SF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.117——
LR+ISBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.118——
LR+ISTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.129——
BQ-TPFBudget=1%, Model=Gemma 3 27B, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.133——
Random SamplingBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet2026.040.134——
Random SamplingTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.139——
RF+ISTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Random Selection2026.040.149——
BQ-TPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=GPT-4o, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.151——
LR+LUREBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Standard2026.040.152——
RF+ISBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet2026.040.167——
IPW2025.090.1770.1
BQ-TPF RoundedBudget=1%, Evaluated Model=GPT-5.1, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ, Rounding=true2026.040.211——
BQ-TPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 3.5 Haiku, Selection Strategy=Active Selection + BQ2026.040.211——
BQ-TPF RoundedTarget Model=GPT-5.2, Budget=1%, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.295——
BQ-TPF RoundedBudget=1%, Target Model=Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Selection Strategy=Active Selection2026.040.335——
Persona-Based2025.090.3400.05