Long-term forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE, SMAPE)
0.167MAEDGF
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGFHorizon=96, Backbone=Moirai-base2026.06 | 0.167 | — | — | |
| DGFBackbone=Moirai-base2026.06 | 0.232 | 0.203 | — | |
| DGFBackbone=Moirai-small2026.06 | 0.235 | 0.207 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=base, Adaptation strategy=MSFT2026.06 | 0.244 | 0.213 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=small, Adaptation strategy=MSFT2026.06 | 0.248 | 0.215 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=small, Adaptation strategy=LoRA2026.06 | 0.252 | 0.224 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=small, Adaptation strategy=Full finetuning2026.06 | 0.254 | 0.228 | — | |
| FeDaLEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.255 | 0.213 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=base, Adaptation strategy=Prompt tuning2026.06 | 0.255 | 0.23 | — | |
| DLinearHorizon=962026.06 | 0.255 | — | — | |
| FFTSEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.256 | 0.217 | — | |
| Time-LLMEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.257 | 0.225 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=small, Adaptation strategy=Prompt tuning2026.06 | 0.258 | 0.235 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=base, Adaptation strategy=Full finetuning2026.06 | 0.258 | 0.231 | — | |
| FedAvgEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.26 | 0.226 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=base, Adaptation strategy=LoRA2026.06 | 0.26 | 0.23 | — | |
| NESTHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.262 | 0.224 | — | |
| PatchTSTEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.264 | 0.255 | — | |
| MoiraiModel scale=base, Adaptation strategy=zero-shot2026.06 | 0.265 | 0.246 | — | |
| PatchTSTHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.268 | 0.229 | — | |
| GPT4TSEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.27 | 0.237 | — | |
| iTransformerHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.27 | 0.231 | — | |
| SimpleTM2026.06 | 0.271 | 0.243 | — | |
| TimeMixerEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.272 | 0.241 | — | |
| TimeMixer2026.06 | 0.272 | 0.24 | — | |
| TS_AdamModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.275 | 0.254 | 63.057 | |
| iTransformer2026.06 | 0.278 | 0.258 | — | |
| AdamModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.279 | 0.257 | 64.133 | |
| AdamWModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.279 | 0.257 | 64.587 | |
| MoiraiModel scale=small, Adaptation strategy=zero-shot2026.06 | 0.279 | 0.268 | — | |
| LookaheadModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.281 | 0.259 | 64.115 | |
| PatchTST2026.06 | 0.281 | 0.259 | — | |
| YogiModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.287 | 0.27 | 64.429 | |
| TimesNetEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.287 | 0.259 | — | |
| DLinearHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.294 | 0.242 | — | |
| TS_AdamModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.297 | 0.251 | 80.688 | |
| AdamModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.299 | 0.252 | 81.671 | |
| AdamWModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.299 | 0.252 | 81.679 | |
| LookaheadModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.3 | 0.254 | 80.407 | |
| DLinearEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.3 | 0.248 | — | |
| TS_AdamModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.311 | 0.263 | 76.083 | |
| LightTSEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.312 | 0.261 | — | |
| StationaryEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.314 | 0.288 | — | |
| DLinear2026.06 | 0.317 | 0.265 | — | |
| YogiModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.318 | 0.274 | 76.61 | |
| AdamModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.319 | 0.268 | 77.613 | |
| SGDModel=PatchTST, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.319 | 0.302 | 69.494 | |
| AdamWModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.319 | 0.268 | 77.59 | |
| LookaheadModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.324 | 0.27 | 79.114 | |
| YogiModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.328 | 0.272 | 81.87 | |
| UniTSHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.343 | 0.308 | — | |
| SGDModel=SegRNN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.359 | 0.369 | 81 | |
| FedformerEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.36 | 0.309 | — | |
| FEDformerHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.37 | 0.329 | — | |
| AutoformerEvaluation Mode=Full-shot, Averaged Horizons={96, 192, 336, 720}2025.08 | 0.382 | 0.338 | — | |
| AutoformerHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.47 | 0.443 | — | |
| SGDModel=MICN, Prediction Lengths (averaged)={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.03 | 0.592 | 0.604 | 125.428 | |
| InformerHistory sequence length=512, Prediction lengths={96, 192, 336, 720}2026.07 | 0.597 | 0.704 | — |