Long-term forecasting on ETTm1 (test)
0.265MSEDGF
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DGFHorizon=96, Backbone=Moirai-base2026.06 | 0.265 | — | |
| DGFHorizon=96, Backbone=Moirai-small2026.06 | 0.28 | — | |
| Moirai-baseHorizon=96, Adaptation=MSFT2026.06 | 0.284 | — | |
| Moirai-smallHorizon=96, Adaptation=MSFT2026.06 | 0.295 | — | |
| FreqLiteHorizon (H)=96, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 0.302 | 0.344 | |
| Moirai-smallHorizon=96, Adaptation=LoRA2026.06 | 0.302 | — | |
| Moirai-smallHorizon=96, Adaptation=Full finetuning2026.06 | 0.303 | — | |
| Moirai-baseHorizon=96, Adaptation=LoRA2026.06 | 0.311 | — | |
| Moirai-baseHorizon=96, Adaptation=Full finetuning2026.06 | 0.312 | — | |
| TimeMixerHorizon=962026.06 | 0.32 | — | |
| SimpleTMHorizon=962026.06 | 0.321 | — | |
| PatchTSTHorizon=962026.06 | 0.329 | — | |
| Moirai-baseHorizon=96, Adaptation=Prompt tuning2026.06 | 0.33 | — | |
| iTransformerHorizon=962026.06 | 0.334 | — | |
| Moirai-smallHorizon=96, Adaptation=Prompt tuning2026.06 | 0.335 | — | |
| Moirai-baseHorizon=96, Adaptation=Zero-shot2026.06 | 0.335 | — | |
| FreqLiteHorizon (H)=192, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 0.34 | 0.367 | |
| DLinearHorizon=962026.06 | 0.345 | — | |
| FreqLiteH=96, Lookback (L)=962026.05 | 0.351 | 0.372 | |
| FreqLiteHorizon (H)=336, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 0.372 | 0.384 | |
| FreqLiteH=192, Lookback (L)=962026.05 | 0.389 | 0.391 | |
| Moirai-smallHorizon=96, Adaptation=Zero-shot2026.06 | 0.404 | — | |
| FreqLiteH=336, Lookback (L)=962026.05 | 0.423 | 0.413 | |
| FreqLiteHorizon (H)=720, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 0.428 | 0.417 | |
| FreqLiteH=720, Lookback (L)=962026.05 | 0.487 | 0.449 | |
| NaiveHorizon (H)=96, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 1.214 | 0.665 | |
| NaiveHorizon (H)=192, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 1.261 | 0.69 | |
| NaiveHorizon (H)=336, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 1.287 | 0.707 | |
| NaiveHorizon (H)=720, Lookback (L)=3362026.05 | 1.322 | 0.729 |