Forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE)
0.173MAERIDDE
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| RIDDEZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.05 | 0.173 | 0.139 | |
| Cross-RAGZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.05 | 0.181 | 0.148 | |
| TS-RAGZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.05 | 0.197 | 0.163 | |
| RAF-Chronos-boltZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.05 | 0.206 | 0.178 | |
| Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Baseline (pretrained checkpoint)2026.04 | 0.23 | — | |
| Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.04 | 0.243 | — | |
| TotobProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.07 | 0.245 | 0.224 | |
| ZEUSProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.07 | 0.247 | 0.217 | |
| Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.04 | 0.248 | — | |
| ReCast2025.11 | 0.25 | 0.229 | |
| Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.04 | 0.25 | — | |
| Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.04 | 0.251 | — | |
| KairoslProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.07 | 0.253 | 0.231 | |
| Naïve LastModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.04 | 0.254 | — | |
| ChronosBoltbProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.07 | 0.254 | 0.237 | |
| PatchMLP2025.11 | 0.256 | 0.231 | |
| Seasonal NaïveModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.04 | 0.263 | — | |
| GPT4TSProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.07 | 0.263 | 0.23 | |
| TQNet2025.11 | 0.269 | 0.242 | |
| Sundialvariant=Base2025.02 | 0.27 | 0.234 | |
| ModernTCNProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.07 | 0.27 | 0.232 | |
| CycleNet2025.11 | 0.271 | 0.243 | |
| Naïve MeanModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.04 | 0.271 | — | |
| Sundialvariant=Small2025.02 | 0.271 | 0.233 | |
| Moiraivariant=Large2025.02 | 0.273 | 0.264 | |
| Sundialvariant=Large2025.02 | 0.275 | 0.238 | |
| SundiallProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.07 | 0.275 | 0.238 | |
| PatchTSTProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.07 | 0.275 | 0.236 | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.04 | 0.278 | — | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.04 | 0.278 | — | |
| iTransformer2025.11 | 0.279 | 0.258 | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Baseline pretrained on KS + LMC2026.04 | 0.279 | — | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.04 | 0.279 | — | |
| PatchTST2025.11 | 0.281 | 0.259 | |
| Moiraivariant=Base2025.02 | 0.281 | 0.287 | |
| iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.04 | 0.286 | — | |
| TimesNetProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.07 | 0.286 | 0.261 | |
| TimesNet2025.11 | 0.287 | 0.259 | |
| Time-MoEvariant=Ultra2025.02 | 0.288 | 0.256 | |
| Time-MoElProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.07 | 0.288 | 0.256 | |
| TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.04 | 0.294 | — | |
| Timer-XLprotocol=Zero-shot2025.02 | 0.294 | 0.256 | |
| TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Baseline pretrained on KS + LMC2026.04 | 0.297 | — | |
| TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.04 | 0.297 | — | |
| Time-MoEvariant=Base2025.02 | 0.297 | 0.265 | |
| TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.04 | 0.3 | — | |
| Time-MoEvariant=Large2025.02 | 0.3 | 0.27 | |
| TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.04 | 0.301 | — | |
| Chronosvariant=Large2025.02 | 0.306 | 0.279 | |
| UniTSProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.07 | 0.306 | 0.291 | |
| Chronosvariant=Base2025.02 | 0.315 | 0.292 | |
| Dlinear2025.11 | 0.317 | 0.265 | |
| TimerProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.07 | 0.342 | 0.326 | |
| MOMENTProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.07 | 0.353 | 0.326 |