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ResearchFormerly WizWand

Forecasting on Weather (MSE, MAE)

0.173MAERIDDE
0.16580.21440.2630.3116Feb 2, 2025Apr 28, 2025Jul 23, 2025Oct 17, 2025Jan 11, 2026Apr 7, 2026Jul 2, 2026
Updated 4mo ago

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
RIDDEZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.050.1730.139
Cross-RAGZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.050.1810.148
TS-RAGZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.050.1970.163
RAF-Chronos-boltZero-shot=true, Input length=512, Forecasting horizon=64, Backbone=Chronos-Bolt2026.050.2060.178
Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Baseline (pretrained checkpoint)2026.040.23—
Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.040.243—
TotobProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.070.2450.224
ZEUSProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.070.2470.217
Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.040.248—
ReCast2025.110.250.229
Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.040.25—
Chronos-2Backbone=Chronos-2, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.040.251—
KairoslProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.070.2530.231
Naïve LastModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.040.254—
ChronosBoltbProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.070.2540.237
PatchMLP2025.110.2560.231
Seasonal NaïveModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.040.263—
GPT4TSProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.070.2630.23
TQNet2025.110.2690.242
Sundialvariant=Base2025.020.270.234
ModernTCNProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.070.270.232
CycleNet2025.110.2710.243
Naïve MeanModel Category=Naïve Predictions2026.040.271—
Sundialvariant=Small2025.020.2710.233
Moiraivariant=Large2025.020.2730.264
Sundialvariant=Large2025.020.2750.238
SundiallProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.070.2750.238
PatchTSTProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.070.2750.236
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.040.278—
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.040.278—
iTransformer2025.110.2790.258
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Baseline pretrained on KS + LMC2026.040.279—
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.040.279—
PatchTST2025.110.2810.259
Moiraivariant=Base2025.020.2810.287
iTransformerBackbone=iTransformer, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.040.286—
TimesNetProtocol=Supervised, Model Category=Task-Specific Model2026.070.2860.261
TimesNet2025.110.2870.259
Time-MoEvariant=Ultra2025.020.2880.256
Time-MoElProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Pretrained Forecasting Model2026.070.2880.256
TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Combined)2026.040.294—
Timer-XLprotocol=Zero-shot2025.020.2940.256
TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Baseline pretrained on KS + LMC2026.040.297—
TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Drift)2026.040.297—
Time-MoEvariant=Base2025.020.2970.265
TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Lag)2026.040.3—
Time-MoEvariant=Large2025.020.30.27
TimePFNBackbone=TimePFN, Protocol=Fine-tuned (KS + LMC + DynLMC - Regime Shift)2026.040.301—
Chronosvariant=Large2025.020.3060.279
UniTSProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.070.3060.291
Chronosvariant=Base2025.020.3150.292
Dlinear2025.110.3170.265
TimerProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.070.3420.326
MOMENTProtocol=Zero-shot, Model Category=Time Series Foundation Model2026.070.3530.326