Forecasting on Forecasting (test)
0.133Brier ScoreBBC (binary+human)
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBC (binary+human)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.133 | 82.9 | 68.3 | 0.035 | 9.16 | |
| BBC (binary only)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.135 | 82.5 | 67 | 0.042 | 11.247 | |
| BBC (binary+human)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.135 | 83.1 | 67.6 | 0.054 | 9.677 | |
| BBC (binary+human)Input LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.136 | 82.8 | 67.3 | 0.058 | 9.815 | |
| Platt ScalingInput LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.138 | 82.5 | 65.5 | 0.049 | — | |
| Isotonic RegressionInput LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.138 | 82.5 | 65.5 | 0.044 | — | |
| BBC (binary only)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.138 | 83 | 66.8 | 0.067 | 12.227 | |
| BBC (binary only)Input LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.138 | 81.9 | 66.9 | 0.055 | 11.703 | |
| Isotonic RegressionInput LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.14 | 82.6 | 62.4 | 0.064 | — | |
| Isotonic RegressionInput LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.143 | 82.3 | 63.7 | 0.06 | — | |
| Platt ScalingInput LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.144 | 82.7 | 63.9 | 0.069 | — | |
| Platt ScalingInput LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.145 | 82.9 | 62.1 | 0.085 | — | |
| Ensemble (n = 10)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.159 | 79.7 | 64.6 | 0.121 | — | |
| Ensemble (n = 10)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.165 | 76.6 | 67.6 | 0.138 | — | |
| Ensemble (n = 10)Input LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.165 | 76.6 | 66.2 | 0.153 | — | |
| P(True)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.166 | 82.7 | 56.8 | 0.165 | — | |
| VerbalizedInput LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.169 | 77.1 | 63.9 | 0.14 | — | |
| VerbalizedInput LLM=Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.17 | 77.8 | 62.1 | 0.124 | — | |
| VerbalizedInput LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.174 | 76.4 | 65.5 | 0.144 | — | |
| P(True)Input LLM=Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.217 | 76.8 | 62.3 | 0.216 | — | |
| P(True)Input LLM=Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct2026.05 | 0.261 | 73.6 | 63.3 | 0.262 | — |