Forecasting on ForecastBench
0.514Human MSEBaseline
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BaselinePrompting Strategy=Baseline2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.451 | 0.154 | 0.963 | 0.154 | |
| Direct Error CorrectionPrompting Strategy=Direct Error Correction2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.506 | 0.154 | 0.995 | 0.154 | |
| Contrarian ReasoningPrompting Strategy=Contrarian Reasoning2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.216 | 0.154 | 0.498 | 0.153 | |
| Self-Divergent ReasoningPrompting Strategy=Self-Divergent Reasoning2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.461 | 0.154 | 0.966 | 0.154 | |
| Human-Divergent ReasoningPrompting Strategy=Human-Divergent Reasoning2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.453 | 0.154 | 0.985 | 0.154 | |
| Restricted ContextPrompting Strategy=Restricted Context2026.07 | 0.514 | 0.439 | 0.154 | 0.967 | 0.154 |