Forecasting on ForecastBench benchmark leaderboard · SOTA2 Research

Forecasting on ForecastBench

0.514Human MSEBaseline

Evaluation Results

Method	Links
Baseline2026.07		0.514	0.451	0.154	0.963	0.154
Direct Error Correction2026.07		0.514	0.506	0.154	0.995	0.154
Contrarian Reasoning2026.07		0.514	0.216	0.154	0.498	0.153
Self-Divergent Reasoning2026.07		0.514	0.461	0.154	0.966	0.154
Human-Divergent Reasoning2026.07		0.514	0.453	0.154	0.985	0.154
Restricted Context2026.07		0.514	0.439	0.154	0.967	0.154