Fire Spread Prediction on WildfireSpreadTS (test)
0.877Binary Cross-EntropyTwistNet - KL
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TwistNet - KLCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 0.877 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - KLCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.046 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - KLCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 1.149 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - KLCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.424 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - DRECovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 1.541 | — | — | — | — | |
| NAS-XCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.576 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - DRECovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.649 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - DRECovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.702 | — | — | — | — | |
| NAS-XCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 1.755 | — | — | — | — | |
| NASMCCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 1.759 | — | — | — | — | |
| NAS-XCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.787 | — | — | — | — | |
| TwistNet - DRECovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 1.985 | — | — | — | — | |
| NASMCCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 1.992 | — | — | — | — | |
| NASMCCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 2.008 | — | — | — | — | |
| NAS-XCovariate regime=Full-week covariates2025.10 | 2.392 | — | — | — | — | |
| NASMCCovariate regime=Past covariates only2025.10 | 3.35 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2D Swin U-Net2026.06 | — | 0.4328 | 0.4749 | 0.4528 | — | |
| 2D U-Net2026.06 | — | 0.3382 | 0.3957 | 0.3647 | — | |
| Baseline CNNType=CNN, Params=1.2M2026.04 | — | 0.3307 | 0.485 | 0.3933 | 33.54 | |
| Baseline UNet (ResNet18)Parameters=14M, Prediction=Next day2026.02 | — | 0.536 | 0.654 | 0.589 | — | |
| FireSenseNet (CAFIM)Type=CNN, Params=3.0M2026.04 | — | 0.3818 | 0.4609 | 0.4176 | 34.35 | |
| HT-UNetParameters=169k, Prediction=Next day2026.02 | — | 0.51 | 0.646 | 0.57 | — | |
| Hybrid CNN+CAFIM+TransType=Hybrid, Params=5.9M2026.04 | — | 0.355 | 0.4449 | 0.3949 | 31.55 | |
| Hybrid CNN+TransType=Hybrid, Params=5.5M2026.04 | — | 0.3365 | 0.4629 | 0.3897 | 31.72 | |
| Hybrid Video Swin U-Net2026.06 | — | 0.6328 | 0.6791 | 0.655 | — | |
| Regularized TransformerType=Trans, Params=1.9M2026.04 | — | 0.2926 | 0.4211 | 0.3453 | 25.39 | |
| SegFormerType=Trans, Params=11.3M2026.04 | — | 0.296 | 0.4287 | 0.3502 | 26.99 | |
| Small TransformerType=Trans, Params=1.9M2026.04 | — | 0.2902 | 0.4378 | 0.349 | 26.77 | |
| TD-FusionUNet (base=4)Parameters=159k, Prediction=Next day2026.02 | — | 0.58 | 0.595 | 0.588 | — | |
| TD-FusionUNet (base=8)Parameters=370k, Prediction=Next day2026.02 | — | 0.539 | 0.653 | 0.591 | — | |
| Video Swin U-Net2026.06 | — | 0.6196 | 0.5823 | 0.6003 | — |