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Event Prediction on StackOverFlow

49.6ACCDTPP
23.39230.1963743.804May 9, 2023Nov 8, 2023May 9, 2024Nov 9, 2024May 11, 2025Nov 10, 2025May 13, 2026

Evaluation results

MethodLinks
DTPPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0549.6———————1.034——
ContiFormer2026.0247.3-2.3320.948————————
OsciFormer2026.0247.1-2.3150.951————————
NJDTPPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0546.9———————1.112——
ODE-RNN2026.0246.7-2.3950.952————————
GRU-Δt2026.0246.6-2.3890.95————————
mTAN2026.0246.6-2.3910.95————————
Transformer2024.0546.44—1.442.92———————
Aaren2024.0546.34—1.272.91———————
AWSMArchitecture=SAHP2024.1046.2-2.541—————————
AWSMArchitecture=THP2024.1046.2-2.508—————————
MLEArchitecture=SAHP2024.1046.1-2.428—————————
MLEArchitecture=THP2024.1046.1-2.368—————————
RMTPP2026.0246.1-2.3740.955————————
Language-TPP-0.5BSize=0.5B2025.0245.5————0.002—————
HP-CDEMemory usage(MB)=44, Training time(m)=6.8782023.0545.27.3480.996————————
SURF-MoEEvaluation Protocol=finetuned2026.0545.1———————1.077——
NeuralHP2026.0245-2.6081.022————————
NHP2025.0245————0.006—————
THP2025.0245————0.006—————
NHPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0545———————1.372——
AttNHPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0545———————1.374——
THPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0545———————1.374——
THPMemory usage(MB)=4585, Training time(m)=0.1692023.0544.9-0.5540.973————————
IFTPP2025.0244.9————0.005—————
Abs. Calendar (Sec.)Tokens=62025.1244.8—0.569————————
AttNHP2025.0244.8————0.003—————
SURF-MoEEvaluation Protocol=joint2026.0544.8———————1.255——
Abs. Calendar (Day)Tokens=32025.1244.7—0.578————————
GRUwEEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0544.7———————1.369——
SURF-CSBEvaluation Protocol=finetuned2026.0544.7———————1.039——
SURF-GLQEvaluation Protocol=finetuned2026.0544.6———————1.018——
DSMArchitecture=THP2024.1044.5-2.782—————————
Numeric StringTokens=~42025.1244.5—0.625————————
Rel. Calendar (Sec.)Tokens=62025.1244.5—0.623————————
RSQ (Linear, L4)Tokens=42025.1244.5—0.603————————
SURF-CSBEvaluation Protocol=joint2026.0544.5———————1.104——
Rel. Calendar (Day)Tokens=32025.1244.4—0.626————————
TPP-LLMTokens=-2025.1244.4—0.464————————
SURF-GLQEvaluation Protocol=joint2026.0544.4———————1.098——
ByteTokens=42025.1244.3—0.516————————
Scale Bin (Linear)Tokens=12025.1244.3—0.615————————
Scale Bin (Log)Tokens=12025.1244.3—0.479————————
RSQ (Log, L1)Tokens=12025.1244.3—0.497————————
RSQ (Linear, L1)Tokens=12025.1244.2—0.595————————
RSQ (Log, L4)Tokens=42025.1244.2—0.474————————
HP2026.0244.1-5.7941.341————————
SAHP2025.0243.9————0.005—————
SAHPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0543.9———————1.375——
NHPMemory usage(MB)=449, Training time(m)=3.5562023.0543.4-7.7261.027————————
ODETPPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0543.2———————1.374——
IFTPPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0543.2———————1.374——
RMTPPMemory usage(MB)=27, Training time(m)=0.042023.0542.9-1.8941.321————————
DSMArchitecture=SAHP2024.1042.1-2.629—————————
TPP-LLM2025.0241.9————0—————
MHPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0535———————1.388——
RMTPPEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.0535———————1.376——
SAHPMemory usage(MB)=11080, Training time(m)=0.1472023.0524.4-0.4314.525————————
A-NHP2025.10——1.37—55.51——————
A-NHP2025.10——1.37—55.51——————
A-NHPPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.5950.5751.188105.799—
A-NHPPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————42.59——108.54—
AttNHP2026.05————————1.372—55.2
CDiffPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————10.7350.5711.153100.586—
CDiffPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————41.25——106.18—
Dual-TPPPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.7190.5911.296106.697—
Dual-TPPPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————41.75——117.58—
EVILPrior information=Synthetic prior, Prediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.9130.7730.97286.366—
EVILPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.6450.7720.94684.368—
FIM-PPEvaluation protocol=Zero-shot, Prediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.520.6571.0393.296—
FIM-PPEvaluation protocol=Fine-tuning, Prediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————10.3530.5270.9986.443—
FIM-PPEvaluation Protocol=zero-shot, Prediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————49.26——96.36—
FIM-PPEvaluation Protocol=fine-tuned, Prediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————39.8——88.25—
FullyNN2025.10——1.375————————
FullyNN2025.10——1.375————————
FullyNNEvaluation Protocol=from scratch2026.05————————1.375——
GRUwE2025.10——1.369—55.34——————
GRUwE2025.10——1.369—55.34——————
HYPROPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.590.5861.227109.014—
HYPROPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————42.4——111—
IFTPPPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————13.1240.7021.182108.409—
IFTPP2026.05————————1.373—55.1
IFTPPPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————46.28——115.12—
MHP2026.05————————1.388—65
NHP2025.10——1.369—55.78——————
NHP2025.10——1.369—55.78——————
NHPPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.8070.5961.261108.074—
NHP2026.05————————1.372—55
NHPPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————43.79——116.95—
ODETPP2026.05————————1.374—56.8
RMTPP2025.10——1.37—57.5——————
RMTPP2025.10——1.37—57.5——————
RMTPP2026.05————————1.376—57.3
SAHP2025.10——1.375—56.1——————
SAHP2025.10——1.375—56.1——————
SAHP2026.05————————1.375—56.1
SNMPP2026.05————————1.05—56.2
TCDDMPrediction Horizon=N=52026.04——————11.410.631.201107.893—
TCDDMPrediction Horizon (N)=202025.09——————42.13——107.66—
THP2025.10——1.368—55.6——————