Epidemic Forecasting on US National wILI (seasons 2014/15-2019/20)
0.48RMSEEPIFNP
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIFNPforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 0.48 | 0.089 | 0.56 | 0.068 | |
| DDforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 0.6 | 0.35 | 3.56 | 0.12 | |
| RNPforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 0.61 | 0.13 | 3.34 | 0.43 | |
| EPIFNP2021.06 | 0.7 | 0.19 | 1.54 | 0.11 | |
| EDforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 0.73 | 0.14 | 4.26 | 0.24 | |
| EPIFNPforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 0.78 | 0.123 | 0.89 | 0.035 | |
| DDforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 0.79 | 0.41 | 3.87 | 0.12 | |
| EPIFNPforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 0.79 | 0.128 | 0.84 | 0.081 | |
| GP2021.06 | 0.83 | 0.22 | 1.44 | 0.16 | |
| RNP2021.06 | 0.88 | 0.23 | 9.58 | 0.46 | |
| DDforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 0.94 | 0.45 | 4.02 | 0.13 | |
| RNPforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 0.98 | 0.22 | 3.61 | 0.46 | |
| DD2021.06 | 1.05 | 0.49 | 3.77 | 0.11 | |
| EDforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 1.13 | 0.23 | 6.37 | 0.15 | |
| RNPforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 1.18 | 0.29 | 3.89 | 0.45 | |
| ED2021.06 | 1.2 | 0.25 | 2.69 | 0.32 | |
| EBforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 1.21 | 0.57 | 6.92 | 0.07 | |
| EBforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 1.23 | 0.58 | 7 | 0.082 | |
| EBforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 1.25 | 0.58 | 7.12 | 0.085 | |
| GPforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 1.28 | 0.21 | 2.02 | 0.24 | |
| GPforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 1.36 | 0.22 | 2.12 | 0.25 | |
| SARIMAforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 1.43 | 0.28 | 3.11 | 0.43 | |
| GPforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 1.45 | 0.26 | 2.27 | 0.28 | |
| EB2021.06 | 1.53 | 0.67 | 7.23 | 0.13 | |
| GRUforecast horizon (k)=22021.06 | 1.72 | 0.28 | 7.98 | 0.16 | |
| EDforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 1.81 | 0.33 | 8.75 | 0.42 | |
| SARIMAforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 1.81 | 0.35 | 3.4 | 0.38 | |
| GRUforecast horizon (k)=32021.06 | 1.87 | 0.31 | 8.21 | 0.2 | |
| BNNforecast horizon (k)=2, architecture=LSTM2021.06 | 1.89 | 0.34 | 6.92 | 0.18 | |
| BNNforecast horizon (k)=3, architecture=LSTM2021.06 | 2.05 | 0.46 | 7.56 | 0.22 | |
| GRU2021.06 | 2.05 | 0.41 | 4.52 | 0.38 | |
| GRUforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 2.12 | 0.356 | 8.95 | 0.22 | |
| SARIMAforecast horizon (k)=42021.06 | 2.12 | 0.42 | 3.81 | 0.34 | |
| MCDPforecast horizon (k)=2, backbone=GRU2021.06 | 2.24 | 0.46 | 9.62 | 0.24 | |
| SARIMA2021.06 | 2.33 | 0.47 | 3.87 | 0.37 | |
| MCDPforecast horizon (k)=3, backbone=GRU2021.06 | 2.41 | 0.51 | 10 | 0.32 | |
| BNNforecast horizon (k)=4, architecture=LSTM2021.06 | 2.43 | 0.51 | 8.03 | 0.25 | |
| MCDPforecast horizon (k)=4, backbone=GRU2021.06 | 2.61 | 0.6 | 10 | 0.34 | |
| BNN2021.06 | 2.87 | 0.29 | 9.89 | 0.42 | |
| MCDP2021.06 | 3.36 | 0.548 | 10 | 0.39 |