Distributional Prediction on OpinionQA 80/20 (test)
0.178Total Variation (TV)Calibrated ensemble
Evaluation Results
| Method | Links | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calibrated ensembleTraining objective=CDF l1, Variant=personas + dummy twins2026.04 | 0.178 | 0.298 | 0.123 | 0.031 | 0.154 | 0.271 | 0.045 | |
| Uniform-weight baselineCalibration=none, Weighting=uniform-weight2026.04 | 0.35 | 11,824 | 1.3 | 0.137 | 0.303 | 0.52 | 0.154 |