AI capability progress modeling on METR experiment data h_model
27.37MSESigmoid Curve
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | |
|---|---|---|
| Sigmoid CurveSpecification=Sigmoid Curve2026.02 | 27.37 | |
| Sigmoid LinkSpecification=Sigmoid Link2026.02 | 203.69 | |
| METR Exponential CurveSpecification=METR Exponential Curve2026.02 | 339.93 | |
| B-Spline LinkSpecification=B-Spline Link2026.02 | 511.8 | |
| Exponential LinkSpecification=Exponential Link2026.02 | 2,874.67 |