Agentic Uncertainty Elicitation on SWE-bench Pro (test)
0.68AUROCAggressive (max)
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive (max)Base Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.68 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.41 | |
| Aggressive (max)Base Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.4 | |
| Pre-ExecutionBase Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.34 | |
| Adversarial Post-ExecutionBase Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.64 | 0.2 | 0.24 | 0.26 | |
| Pre-ExecutionBase Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.62 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.33 | |
| AverageBase Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.62 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.35 | |
| Post-ExecutionBase Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.4 | |
| Conservative (min)Base Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.57 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.32 | |
| Adversarial Post-ExecutionBase Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.57 | 0.4 | 0.53 | 0.51 | |
| AverageBase Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.57 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.33 | |
| Adversarial Post-ExecutionBase Model=GPT-5.2-Codex, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=35%2026.02 | 0.55 | 0.26 | 0.3 | 0.31 | |
| Post-ExecutionBase Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.36 | |
| Conservative (min)Base Model=Claude-Opus-4.5, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=27%2026.02 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 0.3 | |
| Pre-ExecutionBase Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.77 | |
| AverageBase Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.53 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.65 | |
| Conservative (min)Base Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.64 | |
| Post-ExecutionBase Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Single, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.65 | |
| Aggressive (max)Base Model=Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, Method Category=Ensemble, Base Rate=22%2026.02 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.78 |