24-hour ahead probabilistic forecasting on NYISO 2018–2024
0.1281MSEUG-WIAE-GPF
Evaluation results
| Method | Links | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UG-WIAE-GPFModel Category=Proposed method (WIAE-based)2026.03 | 0.1281 | 0.255 | 0.0119 | 0.028 | 0.2515 | 0.022 | |
| WIAE-GPFYear=2024, Model Category=Proposed method (WIAE-based)2026.03 | 0.3508 | 0.3835 | 0.022 | 0.0399 | 0.3958 | 0.399 | |
| GRUYear=2017, Model Category=Recurrent neural network baselines2026.03 | 0.4124 | 0.4245 | 0.0092 | 0.0126 | 1.1081 | 0.0644 | |
| PatchTSTYear=2022, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 1.7508 | 1.0866 | 0.0387 | 0.032 | 3.3637 | 0.1648 | |
| NBEATSYear=2019, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 2.3578 | 0.9501 | 0.0521 | 0.028 | 2.4569 | 0.1441 | |
| NHITSYear=2023, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 2.7831 | 1.0988 | 0.0615 | 0.0324 | 2.9154 | 0.1666 | |
| RNNYear=2014, Model Category=Recurrent neural network baselines2026.03 | 3.6939 | 1.6508 | 0.0827 | 0.0488 | 4.64 | 0.2503 | |
| LSTMYear=2014, Model Category=Recurrent neural network baselines2026.03 | 4.2307 | 1.818 | 0.0947 | 0.0538 | 5.1167 | 0.2757 | |
| DilatedRNNYear=2017, Model Category=Recurrent neural network baselines2026.03 | 6.1914 | 1.7639 | 0.1386 | 0.0522 | 4.8401 | 0.2675 | |
| TimesNetYear=2023, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 6.3864 | 1.9325 | 0.143 | 0.0571 | 5.437 | 0.293 | |
| TimeMixerYear=2024, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 9.1532 | 1.8871 | 0.2024 | 0.0556 | 4.9194 | 0.2862 | |
| MLPYear=2010, Model Category=Lightweight / linear / graph baselines2026.03 | 14.3665 | 2.6669 | 0.3176 | 0.0785 | 7.1342 | 0.4044 | |
| TFTYear=2021, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 23.4326 | 3.4796 | 0.5181 | 0.1025 | 9.1168 | 0.5277 | |
| NLinearYear=2023, Model Category=Lightweight / linear / graph baselines2026.03 | 45.3496 | 4.9876 | 1.0156 | 0.1475 | 13.9908 | 0.7563 | |
| StemGNNYear=2020, Model Category=Lightweight / linear / graph baselines2026.03 | 54.2191 | 5.6601 | 1.2142 | 0.1674 | 15.8152 | 0.8583 | |
| DeepARYear=2020, Model Category=Transformer-/decomposition-based baselines2026.03 | 452.31 | 20.176 | 10 | 0.5941 | 57.887 | 3.0595 |