Are Multilingual Models Actually Improving? Isolating True Cross-Lingual Transfer
About
Cross-lingual transfer is a model's ability to generalize capabilities from well-represented source languages to under-represented target languages. Existing measures of a model's transfer strength conflate improvements in transfer with general improvements to accuracy in the source language. We advocate for an alternate metric that reliably captures transfer strength called Hardness Adjusted Transfer (HAT) Score, and use it to derive multiple insights on factors influencing transfer strength. Our analysis across twenty diverse language models and three popular mainstream multilingual benchmarks argues that 1) transfer in small models is not broken, 2) we are making slower than expected progress in cross-lingual transfer with model size, and 3) we have made clear progress over time.